Rheinmetall's December Crossroads: A €13bn Boxer Decision Hangs Over a Defence Giant Wrestling With Delivery Delays

Rheinmetall awaits €12-13B Boxer order in December, but procurement delays and mixed analyst views keep shares volatile.

Investors in Rheinmetall are marking their calendars for December, when Germany's armed forces are expected to make a final call on the "Arminius" programme — a framework contract for additional Boxer wheeled armoured vehicles that market watchers value at €12bn to €13bn. The firm order is expected to cover roughly 1,800 vehicles, and until the ink dries on that deal, the share price looks set to remain in a holding pattern.

The anticipation surrounding Arminius, however, is being tempered by a steady drip of unwelcome news from the procurement bureaucracy. Internal documents from the federal procurement office BAAINBw have flagged delays and quality shortcomings across two major projects. The delivery schedule for the Skyranger 30 air-defence system has slipped from mid-2026 to around mid-2027, while the "Heavy Weapons Carrier Infantry" — a Boxer variant — is running at least eleven months behind, with officials citing "insufficient maturity" as the cause.

That second programme carries a hefty price tag: 123 vehicles being built in Australia under a €2.7bn contract. The news, first reported by Capital magazine, prompted BÖRSE ONLINE to advise against buying the stock on Thursday, pointing to the operational risks inherent in the delayed deliveries. Yet just a day later, Morningstar reaffirmed its "buy" rating — a stark illustration of how divided the analyst community has become on the defence group's near-term prospects.

The market itself appears largely unbothered by the conflicting signals. Shares were trading at €1,157.60 on Monday, virtually flat against Friday's close. Over the past 30 days, the stock has gained 12 per cent, suggesting the selling pressure has at least temporarily abated. Still, the equity remains 25 per cent below its level at the start of the year and sits a full 42 per cent off the 52-week high of €2,007 reached on 3 October 2025.

That gap between the recent rebound and the longer-term decline reflects a broader tension in the Rheinmetall story. The order book has never looked healthier — it hit a record €80.5bn following the second-quarter results, with operating profit surging 115 per cent year on year. But execution has become the watchword, and not every piece of news has flattered the narrative. The company trimmed its 2026 revenue guidance by up to €300m after the Bundeswehr awarded the F126 frigate programme to rival TKMS, though the projected operating margin of around 19 per cent for that year was left untouched. Notably, the stock has barely moved on that news, up just 0.7 per cent since the announcement.

What the delays mean for investors is a question of timing rather than trajectory, at least according to some. Deutsche Bank reiterated its buy recommendation on 15 August with a price target of €1,800, dismissing the reported order delays as a matter of timing rather than a fundamental shift in risk. Jefferies, also acting on 15 August, lifted its target from €1,300 to €1,350 while maintaining a "buy" stance, citing improved sentiment across the defence sector.

Meanwhile, Rheinmetall continues to broaden its footprint beyond traditional land systems. The company recently completed its majority acquisition of Croatian robotics specialist DOK-ING, which will be folded into a new unit called Rheinmetall Unmanned Vehicles. Together with Hensoldt, it demonstrated the integration of passive sensor technology into a modern air-defence system during the Bundeswehr exercise "Timber Express 2026", and it has taken overall responsibility for the "InterRoC VII" research project aimed at automating military logistics chains. A confirmed order for mobile rescue stations worth more than €500m — 149 additional units called off from an existing framework agreement, with production slated to begin in the first quarter of 2027 — adds further ballast to the medical infrastructure side of the business.

For shareholders, the dividend trajectory offers a measure of reassurance. Management has confirmed a record payout of €11.50 per share for fiscal 2025, a 42 per cent increase on the previous year's €8.10. That commitment, alongside the prospect of the December Boxer decision, suggests a management team confident enough in its growth trajectory to keep rewarding investors even as individual projects encounter turbulence. Whether the market shares that confidence will become clearer once the Bundeswehr finally signs on the dotted line.