Rheinmetall's €80 Billion Backlog and a Rebounding Share Price Set the Stage for Thursday's Half-Year Report

Rheinmetall shares recover 35.5% from June low, but remain 30.9% below year-ago levels. Q2 beat and €80B backlog support, yet overbought signals loom.

The defense contractor's stock has clawed back more than a third of its June losses, yet the gap to its record high remains stark — and the full picture won't emerge until tomorrow's earnings release.

Rheinmetall shares climbed 1.73 percent on Wednesday to €1,223.00, defending the psychologically significant €1,200 level. The advance extends a recovery that has seen the stock gain 35.51 percent since hitting a low of €902.50 in June, when political uncertainty weighed heavily on the Düsseldorf-based group. Even with that rebound, the shares remain down 21.22 percent year-to-date and sit roughly 30.86 percent below their level of twelve months ago.

The turnaround has been fueled by preliminary second-quarter figures released on July 29, which showed operating profit of €562 million — comfortably ahead of the €469.9 million analysts had penciled in. Revenue climbed approximately 69 percent year-on-year to around €3.289 billion, also beating the €3.25 billion consensus. Earnings per share for the quarter came in at €6.06, more than double the €2.90 reported in the same period last year.

The order book provides additional ballast: Rheinmetall's backlog has now surpassed the €80 billion mark, offering the kind of multi-year visibility that most industrial groups can only envy. That combination of operational strength and a deep order pipeline has prompted the market to begin re-weighting fundamentals over sentiment, even as the stock's technical picture flashes a caution signal.

The relative strength index currently reads 70.4, placing the shares in overbought territory after a 7.66 percent surge over the past 30 days. The stock now trades 10.59 percent above its 50-day moving average of €1,105.91, underscoring the short-term uptrend — but also leaving it vulnerable to profit-taking. Resistance sits between €1,256 and €1,342, while the 52-week high of €2,007.00 remains a distant 39.06 percent away. Annualized volatility of 40.91 percent is a reminder that this remains a stock for the stout-hearted.

Beyond the numbers, Rheinmetall has been busy expanding its portfolio on multiple fronts. On Monday, the group unveiled the GMF 140, a guided-missile frigate developed jointly with NVL. The 140-meter vessel displaces more than 6,000 tons and carries 64 vertical launch system cells for air defense and long-range strikes, along with an AEGIS combat system and US radar technology. Capable of around 30 knots and designed for a crew of over 90 plus 35 additional personnel, the frigate targets North America first — Canada and the United States — before Rheinmetall pitches it to other NATO partners. Pricing and delivery timelines have yet to be disclosed.

In the land-systems arena, American Rheinmetall is vying to replace the US Army's Bradley fighting vehicle with its Lynx XM30, going head-to-head with General Dynamics. The vehicle accommodates a crew of two plus six infantry and features a 50-millimeter turret with modular armor.

The medical segment is also contributing to the pipeline. The German government has ordered 149 mobile medical rescue stations from Rheinmetall Project Solutions under a framework agreement signed in December 2024 — 112 of them ballistically protected and 37 unprotected. The order forms part of a NATO initiative for modular medical facilities; Ukraine has been using comparable systems since September 2023. In April, Rheinmetall delivered five armored MEDIGUARD vehicles to Ukraine's National Guard.

Thursday's full half-year report will be the week's defining moment for investors. If the final figures and a concrete full-year outlook confirm the momentum signaled by the preliminary release, the stock could build on its recent stabilization. The consensus for 2026 points to earnings per share of €37.84, up from €15.38 in the prior year, on revenue of €14.03 billion versus €9.94 billion — figures that suggest the growth story remains very much intact. The market capitalization currently stands at roughly €55 billion, a far cry from the valuation the stock commanded before the spring correction, but the groundwork for a re-rating may already be in place.