Rheinmetall Racks Up North American Contracts While Analysts Project 95% Upside

Rheinmetall booked US Army and Marine contracts and a triple-digit-million-euro artillery deal, yet shares fell 0.9% to 947.70 euros.

Fresh order wins on two continents are doing little to lift Rheinmetall's share price, even as sell-side analysts insist the stock is trading at a steep discount to its potential. The Düsseldorf-based defense group announced a new U.S. Army contract worth 20.7 million dollars, awarded to American Rheinmetall through its partner ADS, covering the production of 3,104 MK93 Enhanced Softmounts along with upgrades to 245 existing units. Deliveries under the deal are scheduled to begin in 2026 and run through October 2027.

The award adds to a run of American successes. On September 9, American Rheinmetall secured a 7.28 million dollar order from the U.S. Marine Corps for twelve Mission Master SP autonomous vehicles, five amphibious kits and associated equipment. Five days later, on September 14, the group disclosed a major artillery munitions contract from an unnamed international customer for a low five-digit quantity of 155mm shells, with a total value in the low triple-digit millions of euros. Production is already underway, and full delivery is targeted for 2027.

Naval Services and Nordic Expansion Round Out the Pipeline

Beyond its land-based core, Rheinmetall has been building out its service arm. On September 23, Rheinmetall Naval Systems signed a multi-year framework agreement with Germany's General Customs Directorate covering inspection, repair and emergency response work on four LNG customs vessels — three measuring 55 meters and one with an overall length of 67 meters.

Capacity is expanding as well. Rheinmetall Nordic opened a facility in Skoppum, Norway, spanning 4,579 square meters of gross floor area, where assembly and lifecycle support for various systems will be consolidated.

Swiss Export Data Underscore International Reach

The depth of Rheinmetall's international footprint is on display in Swiss export figures. Of the 2.77 billion francs in war materiel export permits approved for 2025, Rheinmetall captured the lion's share: three subsidiaries and one joint venture accounted for approvals totaling 1.96 billion francs, according to an analysis by the weekly newspaper WOZ. Rheinmetall Air Defence CEO Oliver Dürr told broadcaster SRF that deliveries to Saudi Arabia would proceed where permits are granted. Swiss voters are set to decide on a proposed loosening of the war materiel law in two months.

Papperger's 2030 Vision: 50 Billion Euros in Revenue

CEO Armin Papperger is steering the company toward far more ambitious territory. Annual revenue stood at just under 5 billion euros a decade ago and now approaches 10 billion euros. By 2030, Papperger aims for 50 billion euros. A substantial slice of that is expected to come from the Bundeswehr: up to 40 percent of Germany's 100 billion euro special fund could flow to Rheinmetall, according to the CEO — orders that would keep the Düsseldorf group's capacity booked for years.

Rare Earth Stockpiling as a Hedge Against Supply Risk

Alongside the order boom, Rheinmetall is bracing for supply chain disruptions. POLITICO reported that German companies are stockpiling rare earths amid the threat of new trade restrictions, with processing capacity heavily concentrated globally, according to the International Energy Agency. Chinese export controls in 2025 had already forced Western manufacturers to cut output. In a September investor presentation, Rheinmetall said it is building higher safety stocks, evaluating strategic alternatives for critical raw materials and broadening its supplier base to guard against potential shortfalls.

Market Reaction Muted Despite Bullish Analyst Targets

The stock's performance tells a different story from its order book. Shares slipped 0.9 percent to 947.70 euros in today's session, having touched a downtrend low of 945.50 euros on Tuesday before stabilizing just above that level on XETRA Wednesday. The price remains well below the round 1,000 euro mark, and since the start of the year the equity has shed 39 percent as investors weigh operational progress against sector headwinds and heavy investment needs. Analysts, however, see roughly 95 percent upside from current levels, framing the weakness as a buying opportunity given full order books and rising state defense budgets.