Rare Earth ETF Anchored Near 52-Week Low as China's Export Ledger Sends Mixed Signals

The VanEck Rare Earth ETF (ISIN IE0002PG6CA6) is trading at 9.35 euros, a mere 0.5 percent above its 52-week low of 9.30 euros — a floor that was set as recently as the previous day. The fund sits roughly 50 percent below the 52-week high of 18.76 euros reached in May, a gap that lays bare the scale of the correction endured over recent months.

Behind that subdued price action lies a Chinese export picture that refuses to point in a single direction. September shipments of rare earth permanent magnets hit 6,165.12 tonnes, the highest monthly reading of 2026 — up 23 percent on August and 6.7 percent year-on-year. Industry observers link the pickup to headway in trade talks between China and the US, as well as negotiations between Beijing and Brussels.

Yet the broader rare earth export tally tells a different story. Total September exports came to 4,269.8 tonnes, down 9.8 percent from August, though still 6.7 percent above the year-earlier level. For January through September 2026 combined, exports stood at 43,711 tonnes, 9.6 percent below the prior-year figure, according to Reuters. Despite the September rebound, overseas shipments remain weaker on an annual basis.

Heavy Rare Earths Buck the Trend

Those conflicting signals capture the breadth of the current market. Even as the latest data hint at some normalisation, CRU reported in early October that China's controls on dysprosium, terbium and yttrium had sharply curtailed exports of these heavy rare earths, driving up prices for material outside China. Those restrictions cut against the recent easing signals and show that conditions in individual commodity segments remain strained.

Yttrium illustrates the squeeze in stark terms. China's yttrium oxide exports to Japan fell to 14.1 tonnes between January and May — a 97.7 percent collapse from 605.3 tonnes a year earlier. In September, Japan received just 4 of the 110.1 tonnes of Chinese yttrium oxide exported worldwide. Outside China, the metal now commands around USD 1,150 per kilogram, 179 times its price two years ago; inside China it trades at roughly USD 9 per kilogram, a chasm that underscores how far the market has split.

The backdrop is a licensing requirement China introduced for yttrium in April last year, alongside a January ban on exports of certain dual-use goods to Japanese military users. Tokyo has already asked Washington for help in persuading Beijing to loosen the controls, the Financial Times reported. Japan could run out of its own yttrium stockpiles within months — a critical metal used in high-performance magnets, lasers and defence technology.

A June survey of 400 Japanese procurement and production managers found that 67.6 percent were already reporting sourcing problems, with 17.5 percent recording outright production halts due to the rare earth shortage. China has controlled around 99 percent of global processing capacity for heavy rare earths.

Brussels and Canberra Move on Policy

While Japan improvises, Europe is responding at the institutional level. The European Parliament voted by a large majority on Tuesday — 470 to 83, with 108 abstentions — in favour of amendments to the Critical Raw Materials Act. The measures envisage a dedicated EU raw materials agency, possible export restrictions on scrap and waste from permanent magnets, and support for price stabilisation mechanisms. MEPs are calling for a EUR 2 billion fund in the EU budget for 2028 to 2034. The vote opens negotiations with member states on the final legislation.

The EU and China had already reached an initial understanding in early October that, according to Trade Commissioner Maroš Šef?ovi?, is meant to include steps to stabilise rare earth supply chains. Details, however, remain open. In parallel, the US is stepping up efforts to build its own rare earth supply chain, with unresolved questions over critical minerals still weighing on trade talks, Voice of America reported.

Alternative producers are being counted on as a counterweight. Lynas is targeting its first own yttrium production for early 2028, a Japanese deep-sea mud test is scheduled for February 2027, and an economic assessment is due by March 2028. Until such projects deliver viable volumes, supply remains tight.

No Clear Signal From the Fund Itself

For the accumulating VanEck ETF, no fund-specific reports on inflows or outflows have surfaced over the past two weeks. Figures for the US-listed REMX product cannot be applied to this UCITS share class, as it is a separate vehicle.

Market uncertainty over the conflicting export signals is plain to see in the price. The 14-day RSI of 18.0 signals a deeply oversold condition — a hint at how far persistent supply chain worries and political uncertainty around Chinese export controls are already priced in. For investors, the picture stays ambivalent: structural scarcity in critical metals such as yttrium underpins the long-term case for rising demand for alternatives to Chinese dominance, yet in the near term that very uncertainty weighs on the mining and processing companies bundled in the fund, whose fortunes hinge equally on decisions in Beijing, Tokyo and Brussels.