PayPal's Waiting Game: A Rejected Bid, a Quiet Expansion, and the Price of Patience
Published on 08/18/2026 at 14:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The takeover saga circling PayPal has settled into an unusual rhythm: negotiations drag on, the company keeps shipping new products, and the stock keeps climbing — but not nearly enough to erase the memory of where it once traded.
At the center of it all sits a rejected offer. Stripe and private equity firm Advent International first valued PayPal at $60.50 per share, a bid worth roughly $53 billion that management waved off in July. CEO Enrique Lores made the company's position clear during the second-quarter earnings call on July 28: any deal would need to deliver "superior value" to shareholders. That's diplomatic language for "not at that price."
Yet the talks haven't died. Reuters and the Wall Street Journal reported on August 14 that both sides remain actively engaged, with a new offer potentially landing above the rejected figure — and a deal possible within weeks.
The Numbers Behind the Hard Line
What gives Lores the leverage to hold out? The operating results, for one. PayPal beat expectations in the second quarter with adjusted earnings of $1.38 per share against forecasts of $1.28, while currency-neutral revenue climbed 3% to $8.68 billion, topping the $8.47 billion analysts had penciled in. Full-year guidance now sits at roughly $5.38 in adjusted earnings per share, ahead of the $5.31 consensus.
Those figures give management a credible argument that the original bid shortchanged the business. The market appears to agree: JP Morgan lifted its price target to $65 in late July, and Piper Sandler followed in August with an upgrade to $59, citing value beyond the core checkout franchise.
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The stock itself tells a similar story. Trading around €52.25 on the German exchange, PayPal shares sit roughly 18% above their 50-day average of €44.36 — momentum that reflects growing optimism. But the gap to the 52-week high of €70.78, hit in late October, remains a wide chasm of about 27%. Investors are clearly pricing in a deal, just not at the loftier figures now being whispered.
Expansion While Negotiating
What's striking about this period is how much PayPal is doing beyond the boardroom drama. On August 11, the company launched "PayPal World," letting US users pay Weixin Pay merchants in China via QR code without a local bank account. A day earlier, it announced Venmo balances would work in the Google Play Store.
Then there's the Amazon partnership: since August, customers in Germany and Austria can use PayPal's installment payments on Amazon, with terms ranging from 3 to 24 months — extended to 36 and 48 months exclusively for Amazon — on purchases between €30 and €10,000. That opens a buy-now-pay-later option to more than 40 million PayPal customers inside the world's largest e-commerce ecosystem.
These moves undercut any narrative of a company resting on its laurels while awaiting a buyer. Management is clearly running a two-track strategy: prepare the business for a sale at the right price, but keep building as if no deal will come.
A Structural Overhaul in Progress
Lores is also reshaping the company from within. In early August, he announced that PayPal's three new business units — Checkout Solutions, Consumer Financial Services & Venmo, and Payment Services & Crypto — would each carry their own revenue targets. The move adds transparency during the strategic review and, not incidentally, gives potential buyers a cleaner picture of what they'd be acquiring.
Cost discipline is part of the same story. A restructuring program aims to deliver $400 million in savings by year-end, with CFO Jamie Miller pegging first-phase restructuring costs at $120 million to $140 million for the second half. That's a structural response to criticism that PayPal had grown operationally sluggish — and another argument for a higher price tag.
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Mixed Signals From Insiders
Not everyone is betting on a favorable outcome. Insider transactions paint a muddled picture: Suzan Kereere, president of global markets, cashed out vested stock rights on August 15, with a portion withheld for taxes. Chief Accounting Officer Chris Natali sold shares in early August under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. On the institutional side, S&CO Inc. built a small new position while Chicago Trust Co NA cut its stake by roughly three-quarters in the second quarter.
None of these moves amounts to a clear referendum on the deal's prospects — more a reflection of routine portfolio management during uncertain times.
The Bottom Line
Piper Sandler's August 17 note framed the takeover talks as strategic validation of PayPal's assets — Venmo, its global licenses, and risk infrastructure chief among them. That's a useful lens for the whole situation: whether or not a deal closes, the interest itself has confirmed the business carries substantial value.
The question now is whether Stripe and Advent come back with a number that reflects it. Management's posture suggests they'll hold firm until one does. And with PayPal continuing to expand its ecosystem — from Chinese payment corridors to Amazon checkout lanes — the company is making the case, quarter by quarter, that the original offer was just the opening bid.
