OHB's Two-Speed Reality: Record Backlog Meets a Stock That Can't Find Its Footing

OHB's shares fall 21% below 50-day average despite H1 EBITDA up 31% and record order book, as post-capital-raise dilution weighs.

The gap between OHB's operational trajectory and its share price performance has rarely been wider. The Bremen-based space and defence group closed Tuesday at €186.60, down 1.4 percent on the day, and has shed roughly a fifth of its value over the past month — a slide that leaves the equity trading 21 percent below its 50-day moving average.

Wednesday brought no respite, with the stock losing another 3.0 percent to €181.00. The selling pressure has persisted even as the company's first-half results, published against this backdrop, painted a picture of improving profitability and a swelling order book.

Profitability Climbs While the Ticker Tumbles

OHB reported total output of €628 million for the first half of 2026, with adjusted EBITDA rising 31 percent year-on-year to €60 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 9.6 percent from 8.2 percent in the prior-year period. Management reaffirmed its full-year guidance of €1.4 billion in total output and an adjusted EBITDA margin of between 10.5 and 11 percent.

The order book has reached a record high, and the company puts its pipeline of potential new projects at roughly €20 billion. That operational strength, however, has done little to steady the stock. Technical indicators point to a market in distress: the relative strength index sits at 36.1, suggesting oversold conditions, while the annualised 30-day volatility of 77 percent underscores just how jittery trading has become.

The Dilution Hangover

Part of the explanation for the disconnect lies in the capital increase OHB completed in late June and early July. The €484 million raise — executed through the issuance of just over 1.6 million new shares — left the Fuchs family with a 60.3 percent majority, while KKR's Orchid Lux HoldCo took 19.7 percent and the free float settled at the same level.

The transaction weighed on first-half results through roughly €21.4 million in one-off costs. But it also transformed the balance sheet: net leverage improved to minus 1.1x from 1.9x in the first half of 2025, handing OHB considerably more financial firepower to fund its capital-intensive space projects.

That dilution, though, appears to be weighing on investor sentiment. The share count is up, and the market has been slow to credit the company for the stronger financial position that the raise secured.

A Contract High That Faded Fast

The recent weakness also follows a bout of post-announcement euphoria that quickly evaporated. When OHB signed its roughly €1 billion contract with SES in late August for 18 satellite platforms under the EU's IRIS² programme, the stock jumped more than 9 percent at one point, making it the best performer in the SDax, according to Reuters. CEO Marco Fuchs signalled confidence that further awards under the programme could follow.

That optimism has since given way to scepticism. Media reports attributed the subsequent pullback to valuation concerns and profit-taking rather than any specific negative corporate development. Investors appear to be weighing the contract win against a share price that already reflected considerable growth expectations.

The fleeting nature of the bounce was visible in last week's trading: OHB managed a 1.6 percent gain over seven days, but that was insufficient to break the broader downtrend.

Sector Attention and a Test Flight

Berenberg's decision in early September to initiate sector coverage of the European space industry provided a fresh catalyst for attention, even if it did not change the bank's view on OHB specifically. The buy rating dates back to August 5 and was merely reaffirmed as part of the broader sector launch.

A test flight by German rocket manufacturer Isar Aerospace added to the media buzz around the industry, briefly lifting OHB's shares in what observers described as a sympathy move rather than a reaction to any company-specific news.

Milestones on the Ground and in Orbit

Operationally, OHB has been busy on multiple fronts. The MTG-I2 weather satellite launched successfully aboard an Ariane 6 from Europe's spaceport in late August. In late July, the Italian space agency ASI awarded OHB Italia a contract for the PRISMA Second Generation Earth observation mission. And in June, the group acquired the remaining 30 percent of MT Aerospace, becoming sole owner of the supplier — a consolidation that fits its strategy of bringing key manufacturing capabilities in-house.

What Investors Are Watching Now

With the stock oversold and volatility elevated, attention turns to upcoming management appearances. OHB is scheduled to attend the Jefferies Industrials Conference on September 9-10, followed by the Berenberg & Goldman Sachs German Corporate Conference on September 21. Third-quarter results are due on November 12.

The key questions in the meantime: whether Berenberg's new sector coverage will generate fresh, OHB-specific commentary, and whether the additional IRIS² awards that Fuchs has hinted at will materialise. Until then, the shares look caught between genuine operational momentum and a valuation that increasingly gives the market pause.