OHB's 2027 Bet Stays on the Table Even as the Third Quarter Trips Up

Analysts covering OHB SE have barely touched their long-range growth models after a soft set of quarterly figures, leaving a striking gap between the near-term stumble and the profit surge still baked into consensus. The average price target across the coverage sits unchanged at EUR 298, with individual views scattered from EUR 250 to EUR 358 — a spread wide enough to signal that conviction about the growth path is anything but uniform.

NuWays reaffirmed its buy recommendation on Friday and kept its target at EUR 340, pointing to an improved quarterly margin while flagging slower growth. The stock, however, fell 8.9% that session. Pressure had already built on Thursday, when dpa-AFX reported weakness after an initial advance. JPMorgan analyst David Perry pinned the retreat on adjusted operating profit for the quarter missing the analyst consensus by 7%, with adjusted free cash flow also falling short of expectations.

Nine-Month Figures: Profit Outpaces Revenue

For the first nine months of 2026, OHB posted total output of EUR 946.5 million, up 10% year on year. Adjusted EBIT climbed 30% to EUR 66.9 million, while adjusted EBITDA came in at EUR 99.7 million.

The company's confirmed full-year guidance calls for total output of EUR 1.4 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin in a range of 10.5% to 11.0%.

Underpinning the longer-term case is the order book. At the end of September it stood at EUR 3.94 billion, up from EUR 3.12 billion a year earlier, with the pipeline running at roughly EUR 20 billion. Those two figures carry different weight: bookings already won are one thing, prospective business another, and the pipeline should not be read as secured revenue. A previously awarded ESA contract to subsidiary OHB System — EUR 554 million to develop the next generation of Copernicus Sentinel-3 topography satellites, with an option for a second spacecraft — belongs firmly in the first category.

Consensus Barely Budges

Nine analysts surveyed in media reports expect 2027 revenue of EUR 1.78 billion, which would mark 34% growth against the trailing twelve months. Earnings per share are seen averaging EUR 4.96 next year, a 125% jump. Before the quarterly release, those estimates stood at EUR 1.79 billion in sales and EUR 5.01 per share — revisions so small they suggest the miss has not been treated as a break with the expected trajectory.

That restraint is notable given the quarterly revenue shortfall. The consensus is not simply banking on more business; it is counting on a far richer conversion of that business into profit. How much of the extra revenue actually reaches the bottom line is therefore the yardstick for the stock.

JPMorgan put adjusted operating profit in the third quarter at EUR 28.1 million, 7% below consensus, with adjusted free cash flow missing as well. That combination is what limits the reassurance offered by largely stable forecasts. Rising earnings targets on their own do not settle the doubt — OHB still has to demonstrate that operations and cash generation can keep pace with expectations.

Two forces are pulling in opposite directions. A swelling order book supports the growth outlook, while the latest profit and cash-flow shortfalls raise the bar on execution. The real test is not where the targets sit, but whether OHB can turn the additional business it expects into earnings and cash.