Nvidia's Next Act: Writing Checks Across the AI Economy While Washington Watches

Nvidia is in talks to anchor Anthropic's IPO with up to $10 billion, while the DOJ examines whether its Groq licensing deal dodged antitrust review.

Nvidia is no longer just selling the shovels in the AI gold rush — it is increasingly funding the miners. That shift is on full display this week, as the chipmaker negotiates a marquee stake in one of the sector's hottest private companies while simultaneously fielding a formal antitrust inquiry over how it structures its partnerships.

At the center of the investment story is Anthropic. According to Reuters, Nvidia is in talks to anchor the AI developer's upcoming initial public offering with as much as $10 billion. Anthropic aims to raise up to $100 billion in the listing at a valuation of roughly $2 trillion, with the deal targeted to close before November's US midterm elections. Nothing is binding yet; the discussions remain in the exploratory stage.

The move would deepen a relationship that already runs deep. Back in November 2025, Nvidia committed up to $10 billion to Anthropic, which in turn earmarked $30 billion for Azure computing capacity powered by Nvidia chips. An anchor role in the IPO would cement that supplier-customer bond and hand Nvidia a slice of the upside in one of the fastest-scaling AI businesses around.

The Growth Math Behind the Bet

Anthropic's revenue trajectory explains the enthusiasm. Its annualized run rate climbed from about $9 billion at the end of 2025 to more than $65 billion by the end of July — a multi-fold jump in a matter of months. Projections for 2028 point to $190 billion to $200 billion in sales.

For shareholders, the calculus boils down to whether that pace holds. If it does, a multi-billion-dollar anchor check looks like strategic insurance. If it stalls, Nvidia could find itself holding a large, illiquid position in a private company with an uncertain exit window — a costly concentration risk in a valuation that may already be stretched.

The bull case extends beyond Anthropic itself. Nvidia is involved in several multi-billion-dollar data center projects, including through GPU startup Nscale, which supplies Microsoft and Anthropic with Nvidia hardware. And TSMC, for which Nvidia is the largest customer, posted record August revenue of NT$514.81 billion, up 53.3% year over year — a signal that demand for advanced chips remains unabated.

Cost Pressures and Skeptics

The bear case has two prongs. First, TSMC has reportedly flagged price increases of up to 10% for 2027, which would weigh on margins across the semiconductor industry, Nvidia included. Second, skepticism about AI valuations is mounting. Investor Michael Burry publicly labeled the rally in AI-linked names as "FOMO"-driven — a comment aimed at a different company, but one that captures a broader unease about frothy AI pricing.

Regulatory risk adds another layer. Trade in AI-relevant chips to China remains subject to tightened export controls, and Chinese authorities are now reviewing such shipments on a case-by-case basis.

A Separate Washington Headache

While the Anthropic talks unfold, Nvidia faces a different kind of scrutiny. The US Department of Justice is examining whether a licensing arrangement between Nvidia and Groq was deliberately structured to sidestep antitrust review, according to a New York Times report. The probe reportedly began shortly after the agreement surfaced in December, and the DOJ has since served Nvidia with a formal request for information.

For investors, the inquiry is a caution flag: Nvidia's expanding grip on the AI chip market is drawing closer attention from competition regulators, even though an investigation alone does not establish any violation.

Huang's Counterpoint

Against that regulatory noise, CEO Jensen Huang used the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference to paint a far rosier picture. The AI buildout, he argued, is still in its early innings, with demand strong across cloud providers, enterprises, hardware makers, and so-called neoclouds. Nvidia is seeing 27% month-over-month growth in Grace, Blackwell, and NVLink systems.

The company also confirmed a commitment to 2 gigawatts of data center capacity in Australia for 2027, tied to $80 billion in infrastructure investment. Market watchers had framed Huang's appearance as a barometer for demand for the forthcoming Vera Rubin platform.

Those comments dovetail with recent results. In its second fiscal quarter of 2027, Nvidia posted revenue of $96.2 billion, with $89 billion coming from the data center business. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.22. Management guided third-quarter revenue to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%. On the earnings call, executives also pointed to roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028 — an outlook they explicitly described as supply-constrained, limited by component shortages rather than any softening in demand.

Where the Stock Stands

The market has yet to convert this mix of regulatory risk and operational strength into clear gains. Nvidia closed Friday at EUR 188.22, essentially flat versus the prior session. For the week, the shares are down 5.1%, and they sit roughly 7% below their 52-week high of EUR 202.50. The longer view is brighter: the stock is up 17% year to date. A recent upgrade to "Strong Buy" from Piper Sandler has so far failed to provide a lasting lift.

A neutral RSI of 48.9 reflects the market's wait-and-see mood, though 30-day volatility of 40% suggests investors are primed to react sharply to headlines like these.

What happens next hinges on two things: whether Anthropic's growth rate holds and its IPO lands before the November midterms as planned, and whether the DOJ's Groq review ultimately slows the operational momentum Huang described. Until the official IPO timetable is finalized, the investment itself remains an announcement under negotiation — not a completed move.