Nvidia's $21 Billion Bet Puts SpaceX's Capital Spending Debate in a Sharper Light

SpaceX shares face mixed signals: Nvidia's $21B investment and record launches versus DZ Bank's sell rating and lock-up expiry.

The juxtaposition could hardly be starker. On one side, Nvidia has disclosed a $21 billion stake in SpaceX, with the rocket builder reportedly committing to use the chipmaker's processors exclusively as it expands its AI data centers. On the other, the DZ Bank has just initiated coverage with a sell rating and a $100 price target, warning of a "crash risk" tied to the very capital intensity that makes such a partnership necessary.

That tension played out in the market on Friday, when the stock closed at €117.20, up 2.1 percent on the day. The bounce did little to repair recent damage: the shares remain 3.1 percent lower over seven days, though they have climbed 16 percent over the past month. Even after that recovery, the equity sits well below its 52-week high of €194.46, reached in June, and trades 5.4 percent beneath its 50-day moving average of €123.95.

A Lock-Up Expiry Adds to the Mix

The Nvidia news lands alongside a supply-side development that could test the stock's resilience. Since Thursday, as many as 319 million Class A shares — roughly seven percent of outstanding equity — have become tradable following the expiration of a lock-up period. The combination of fresh institutional capital and the potential for insider selling creates an unusually fluid situation for a stock that has already shown itself prone to sharp swings.

Market participants are also weighing the latest positioning data from major investors. Alphabet marked its SpaceX stake at approximately $94 billion at the end of the second quarter, a remarkable return on its original $900 million investment from 2015. Tiger Global Management, meanwhile, built a position of 375,000 shares worth about $64.1 million as of June 30. Elon Musk's own holding stood at 48.4 percent on the same date, according to a regulatory filing reviewed by Reuters.

Record-Breaking Cadence Continues

The financial noise has done nothing to slow the operational machine. On Saturday, SpaceX completed its 100th orbital mission of 2026 — the 99th Falcon 9 launch delivered 27 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The company reached the century mark two months faster than it did in its previous record year of 2025. The Starlink constellation itself crossed the 11,000-satellite threshold on Wednesday.

The pace has been relentless across multiple fronts. Thursday's Falcon 9 mission from Cape Canaveral carried 29 satellites into orbit, following a brief delay from an earlier attempt. Mid-August brought a particularly striking demonstration of launch capability: two Falcon 9 missions, one for Globalstar and one for the US Space Force, lifted off just 38.5 minutes apart.

That infrastructure is drawing military interest. Following the latest Starlink mission, the US Space Force awarded contracts worth $12 million each to L3Harris, AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Viasat and Iridium to test their interoperability with SpaceX's Space Data Network. The Space Force had already given SpaceX itself a $2.29 billion contract on August 13 to serve as the backbone of that military satellite network.

The Cost of Ambition

The Nvidia investment arrives at a moment of escalating expenditure. SpaceX reported second-quarter capital outlays of $18.37 billion against revenue of $7.81 billion, a 92 percent year-over-year jump. The net loss for the period came to $541 million. Management has guided toward an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by year-end.

That spending trajectory is precisely what worries the DZ Bank analyst team. Their sell call stands in contrast to Clear Street's Brian Dobson, who reaffirmed a buy rating with a $217 price target on Tuesday, calling SpaceX his preferred aerospace and defense name on the strength of its US-based supply chain. The gap between the two targets — $117 — underscores just how wide the disagreement has become.

Starship's Next Act

All eyes now turn to September 15, the tentative date for Starship Flight 14, which would mark the first attempt to reach full orbital velocity. Musk has said the upper stage could be caught by the launch tower's "Mechazilla" arms within months, with the first reuse of a Starship vehicle targeted for late 2026 or early 2027.

The CEO's recent comments on the timing of the next catch attempt have already proven market-sensitive, with the stock sliding after his remarks that the maneuver remains months away. Meanwhile, SpaceX is reportedly in talks with Louisiana officials to acquire 130,000 acres on Pecan Island for a new launch site, a plan that faces opposition from local environmental groups.

With a market capitalization near €1,576.68 billion and 30-day annualized volatility of 91 percent, this remains a stock where operational milestones and capital markets dynamics move in lockstep. The secondary market offered a glimpse of that interplay in early August, when shares closed above the $135 IPO price for the first time in weeks. Whether the next Starship test — and the lock-up wave now washing through the market — push it higher or lower is anyone's guess.