Nvidia Locks Up a Third of 2027 Memory Supply as Buyback Firepower Hits $235 Billion

Morgan Stanley reaffirms Overweight on Nvidia with a $300 target, pointing to AI agent demand, memory supply moves and new security tools.

Morgan Stanley has reinstated Nvidia as its top pick in the semiconductor space following meetings with chief executive Jensen Huang and finance chief Colette Kress, reaffirming an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. The bank pointed to a sturdy product cycle, but flagged something less obvious as the real catalyst: mounting demand from specialized AI labs for systems capable of running autonomous software agents.

That demand is no longer confined to the hyperscalers. A customer base steadily widening beyond the largest cloud operators, combined with shipments of the new Vera Rubin chip architecture and the build-out of high-performance data centers, forms the backbone of the bull case.

Buying Up the Memory Before the Market Notices

While Wall Street debates valuations, Nvidia has been quietly securing the raw materials that future accelerator generations will depend on. Market watchers estimate the company has already locked in more than a third of the global supply of high-speed memory expected to be available in 2027 — a move that effectively pre-empts rivals before the shortage becomes visible in spot prices.

The company is extending its reach on the software side as well. On Monday it unveiled OpenShell and Sentry, a pair of security tools designed to contain AI agents and block unauthorized actions by autonomous software. The strategic logic runs deeper than product diversification: whoever controls the security infrastructure through which future AI systems operate cements their grip on enterprise customers. Nvidia, on this reading, is no longer content to be a component supplier — it is building fences around its entire ecosystem.

Regulation as a Tailwind, Not a Threat

That push dovetails with an unexpected stance from the top. Roughly two weeks ago, Huang argued in a podcast interview against exempting AI companies from antitrust or liability laws. What looks defensive at first glance reads as calculated positioning: strict liability rules force corporate customers to invest heavily in security, and that is precisely the need OpenShell and Sentry are built to serve. Vendors that ship the safety layer alongside the hardware stand to gain from tighter rules rather than fear them.

Internationally, the picture remains fluid. Chinese authorities signaled on September 27 a willingness to let ByteDance and Alibaba purchase Nvidia's RTX PRO 5500 chips, according to media reports that Reuters noted it could not independently verify. Even unconfirmed, the episode underscores how entrenched the technology is among global customers. If Nvidia can keep addressing the Chinese market through specially adapted products, geopolitical risk eases considerably.

Lenders Want More Collateral

The growth path is not frictionless. Reuters reported that lenders and investors demanded stronger guarantees under Nvidia's chip-backed financing plan exceeding $500 billion. At the heart of the pushback is an uncomfortable question: how long can rapidly depreciating high-performance chips really serve as reliable loan collateral? The skepticism is a caution against overly aggressive financing structures across the industry.

Against that stands considerable balance-sheet muscle. The board authorized a $150 billion increase to the share repurchase program — on September 28 according to one account, on Monday according to another — bringing Nvidia's remaining buyback capacity to $235 billion, available through fiscal 2028. The sheer scale of that authorization telegraphs management's confidence in the durability of its cash generation, and it has kept faith in Nvidia's dominance intact even as debate over tech-sector financing models heats up.

Cantor Fitzgerald lent its voice to the optimistic camp, renewing a Buy rating with a $350 price target and pointing to substantial upside for the chip designer's shares.

Trading Just Shy of the Record

The stock continues to hold elevated ground. Nvidia closed Friday's session at €207.85, up 1.1%, leaving it just 1.5% below its 52-week high of €211.00. For investors with a long horizon, the combination of hardware dominance reinforced by indispensable software — and a customer base increasingly locked into the company's own system — keeps the balance of opportunity tilted firmly against the risks.