Novo Nordisk Wins Australian Nod for Wegovy Pill as Analysts Split on What Comes Next

Novo Nordisk has secured Australian regulatory clearance for its oral Wegovy treatment, with the Therapeutic Goods Administration granting approval and the company expecting the pill to reach the market before the end of the year, ABC News reported on Tuesday. The green light lands alongside a sharply upgraded 2026 outlook — and a pair of analyst notes that point in opposite directions.

The Danish drugmaker now guides to a change of between -2% and +2% at constant exchange rates for both adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit in 2026, a marked improvement on the -6% to 0% range it had previously pencilled in. Quarterly figures topped consensus, and Wegovy pill sales came in ahead of forecasts, sending the shares higher following the release.

A quarter of two halves

Adjusted operating profit climbed 27% at constant currencies to DKK 31,720 million in the third quarter of 2026, while adjusted sales rose 4% on the same basis. Reported operating profit moved the other way, slipping 9% at constant exchange rates after absorbing non-cash impairments of DKK 8.7 billion.

The oral franchise supplied the clearest evidence of demand. Wegovy tablets generated DKK 5.39 billion in the quarter, against an analyst consensus of DKK 4.96 billion, according to BioPharma Dive. The injectable version, by contrast, saw its US sales decline over the same period at constant currencies — a contrast that puts the pill at the centre of the investment case.

Two houses, two verdicts

SB1 Markets lifted its target to DKK 345 from DKK 335 and reiterated its buy rating, offering no further rationale for the move. Bernstein took the opposite tack, raising its target to DKK 223 from DKK 203 while keeping its underperform stance. Analyst Justin Smith's estimates remain as much as 17% below the analyst consensus even after the increase.

Bernstein's caution rests on competitive pressure: market-share losses in injectable GLP-1 therapies and weaker profitability, which it argues will cap the business's prospects despite the brighter guidance. Jefferies, for its part, reaffirmed a hold rating and a DKK 275 target on Wednesday, noting that consensus forecasts sat below the midpoint of the raised full-year outlook, though higher expected net financial expenses partly offset that advantage.

The gap between the recommendations frames the central question: how much extra earnings power can Novo extract from its oral offering while the syringe business is under pressure — and whether that is enough to offset share losses and margin strain.

Beyond the pill itself

Attention is also turning to how patients actually get the drug. Financial commentator Niels Lunde describes a commercial ecosystem of digital sales channels, new payment pathways and partners built around Wegovy. CEO Mike Doustdar said on Wednesday that NovoCare and its partners should also be deployed in any future launch of CagriSema, potentially extending the distribution structure beyond Wegovy should it prove reusable for other medicines.

Lunde attaches a condition to the thesis: the model must deliver a competitive edge rather than simply adding cost. That is where the two analyst camps meet. Broader access strengthens Novo's case if it converts into profitable demand; persistent margin pressure would instead vindicate Bernstein's more guarded view.

Buybacks running in the background

Separately, Novo provided an update on its share repurchase activity on Tuesday. The current tranche sits within an overall programme of up to DKK 15 billion running over twelve months from 4 February 2026. The sub-programme, launched on 6 May, permits buybacks of B shares worth up to DKK 11,200,000,010.45 through 1 February 2027.