Novo Nordisk Trims Buyback Pace as BMO Cuts Target and Lilly's Oral Pill Advances in Europe

Novo Nordisk bought back 1,245,000 of its B-shares for roughly DKK 311.6 million between 5 and 9 October, keeping its capital-return machine running even as the stock's slide pushes it further below key technical levels. The repurchases are part of a programme worth up to DKK 15 billion spread over twelve months from 4 February 2026, with a separate tranche running from 6 May to 1 February capped at DKK 11,200,000,010.45. Since the buyback began, close to 37.85 million shares have been retired.

The equity closed Friday at EUR 34.49, down 22% year to date, and sits 12% beneath its 200-day moving average of EUR 39.01. A separate reading on the same session put the shares at EUR 34.83, a decline of 0.5% on the day, with the year-to-date loss at 21%.

BMO Trims Its Target

BMO Capital lowered its price target on the Danish drugmaker on Monday to $40 from $47, keeping a Market Perform rating. The broker points to a demanding year-earlier comparison for the third quarter and to eroding US market share that is likely to weigh on sales growth for the blockbuster Ozempic. Citi had already moved on 9 October, cutting its target to DKK 296 from DKK 310 while reaffirming Neutral — modest recalibrations that leave both houses broadly on the sidelines.

A Tougher European Field

Competition in the lucrative weight-loss segment is intensifying. The European Medicines Agency's committee recommended EU approval for an oral obesity pill from US rival Eli Lilly yesterday, a decision that points to more crowding in Europe over time. Novo Nordisk is pursuing its own oral semaglutide launch in India around mid-2027, subject to local regulatory clearance, and expects the Indian GLP-1 market to expand by 15% to 20% annually.

Denecimig Slips to First Half of 2027

Regulatory friction in the US has added to the pressure. The Food and Drug Administration has extended its review of the haemophilia A candidate Denecimig because remediation work at a manufacturing site is still outstanding. The agency flagged no deficiencies in the submitted safety or efficacy data, and Novo Nordisk has reiterated its financial outlook for 2026. Even so, a US launch, if approved, now shifts to the first half of 2027.

The 4 November Test

Management continues to lean on its own balance sheet while the share price struggles, balancing buybacks against heavy spending on production sites and research. Investors will get a clearer read on how much Ozempic has actually slowed when the company reports nine-month figures for 2026 on 4 November at 07:30.