Novo Nordisk's Ozempic Resilience Buoys JPMorgan While Oral Wegovy Momentum Fades

JPMorgan lifts Novo Nordisk price target to DKK 275, citing Wegovy's international strength, while oral version faces US headwinds and competition.

The Danish pharma giant is being pulled in two directions as analysts recalibrate their outlooks. JPMorgan's Richard Vosser lifted his price target on Novo Nordisk to 275 Danish kroner from 250 on August 24, while keeping a Neutral rating — a move that signals growing confidence in the GLP-1 franchise's staying power, even as the company's oral ambitions show cracks in the US market.

The bank also raised its 2026 sales forecast by 5 percent, citing limited generic erosion for Ozempic and stronger-than-expected international uptake of injectable Wegovy. Earnings per share estimates for 2026 through 2030 were bumped up by 4 to 8 percent.

Markets responded favorably, with shares climbing 3.5 percent to 41.60 euros on Tuesday. The stock now sits just shy of its 50-day moving average of 41.71 euros and roughly 3.4 percent above the 200-day line — a sign the medium-term trend is firming after a 12-month stretch that saw the shares shed 12 percent. The stock has gained about 8.4 percent since the company raised its full-year guidance in early August following stronger-than-expected quarterly results.

A Tale of Two Wegovys

The picture JPMorgan paints is deliberately nuanced. While the injectable form of Wegovy continues to gain ground internationally, the oral version is losing momentum in the United States, prompting the bank to trim its 2026 projections for that product line. The weakness, however, is more than offset by the injectable's overseas strength.

Looking further out, JPMorgan expects roughly flat revenue growth on a currency-adjusted basis for 2026, followed by modest expansion of about 1 percent in 2027 and 2 percent in 2028. A genuine acceleration, the analysts argue, won't materialize until the pipeline candidate Zenagamtide advances — a catalyst that remains years away.

Not everyone shares the cautious optimism. Berenberg downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold in mid-August, slashing its price target to $47 from $50 on expectations that competition in the oral obesity market will intensify in the second half of the year. That assessment, while a few weeks old, underscores a tension that even JPMorgan's updated analysis acknowledges: the injectable portfolio is firing on all cylinders abroad, but the oral pill faces mounting pressure from emerging alternatives at home.

Volatility Reflects Uncertainty

For investors, the takeaway is a two-sided narrative. The immediate market reaction suggests the price target hike was welcomed as a positive signal. Yet the growth story has grown more complicated than it appeared a year ago. The stock's 30-day volatility of 40 percent highlights just how much uncertainty remains priced in.

The central question now is whether Novo Nordisk can sustain its international momentum with injectable Wegovy while the oral version's US trajectory cools — and whether the market's patience will hold until Zenagamtide enters the picture. JPMorgan's revised numbers offer a measure of reassurance, but the differentiated outlook across product lines serves as a reminder that this is no longer a one-size-fits-all growth story.