Novo Nordisk's Ozempic Holds Cardiovascular Edge Over Tirzepatide as Buyback Program Nears Its Limit

Retrospective analysis of 636,525 adults finds higher Ozempic dose tied to 6% lower cardiovascular risk versus switching to tirzepatide.

Novo Nordisk has rolled out fresh evidence that its flagship diabetes treatment retains a therapeutic advantage over the rival molecule tirzepatide, publishing a retrospective real-world analysis covering 636,525 adults with type-2 diabetes. The study examined outcomes when patients escalated their Ozempic dose to 2 milligrams versus switching to tirzepatide, and found that the higher semaglutide dose was tied to a 6 percent lower risk of major cardiovascular events. The result carries statistical significance and hands prescribers a concrete reason to keep patients on the existing therapy rather than rotate them onto an alternative.

Shares in the Danish drugmaker changed hands at EUR 34.37, while a separate reading on Friday put the stock at EUR 34.40 at the close, up 1.3 percent on the day. Even with that modest advance, the equity sits well beneath its 52-week peak of EUR 54.86 and has shed 22 percent since the start of the year.

Capital Returns Run Ahead of Schedule

Behind the share price weakness, Novo Nordisk has been steadily shrinking its own float. The company disclosed on October 5 that it bought back 1,225,000 of its own B shares between September 28 and October 2, spending DKK 307,428,837 in the process. Since the program launched on February 4, cumulative repurchases have reached 36,604,179 B shares, with a total transaction value of DKK 10,247,270,869 through October 2.

The framework caps the effort at DKK 15 billion over twelve months from February 4, 2026, meaning the group has already deployed the bulk of the authorized capital to retire stock through the exchange.

FDA Stalls Hemophilia Candidate

Regulatory friction has added to the pressure on sentiment. Roughly two weeks ago, the US Food and Drug Administration extended its review of Denecimig, Novo Nordisk's treatment for hemophilia A, citing ongoing remediation work at a manufacturing site. The agency did not flag any deficiencies in the submitted efficacy or safety data, and it has yet to set a new decision date.

Management said the delay carries no financial implications for the current fiscal year and reaffirmed that it does not alter the 2026 financial outlook. Assuming a successful approval, Novo Nordisk continues to target a US launch in the first half of 2027.

Obesity Franchise Delivers on Multiple Fronts

Clinical readouts presented at the European diabetes congress EASD 2026 painted a more encouraging picture. An analysis showed that Wegovy normalized liver fat content in nine out of ten adults living with obesity and fatty liver disease. Data from the OCTANE study found that patients who switched from injectable GLP-1 therapies to the Wegovy pill lost an average of 4.1 percent of body weight after three months, provided they stayed on treatment.

The candidate CagriSema also drew attention, with Novo Nordisk reporting favorable effects on organ and bone health alongside a reduction in persistent food cravings.

Pipeline Bolstered Through Chinese Licensing Deal

To widen its development arsenal, the company secured exclusive rights to HRS-1596, an oral GLP-1/GIP dual agonist from China's Hengrui Pharma. The agreement covers development, manufacturing and commercialization outside mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Novo Nordisk is paying USD 300 million upfront for the Phase 1 asset, with the total package potentially reaching USD 2.6 billion once future milestones are included.

Taken together, the buyback cadence, the regulatory holdup and the steady flow of research data left investors cautious, even as the stock managed a small gain in the latest session.