Novo Nordisk's Oral Wegovy Data Land as CFRA Turns Bearish on the Stock

Novo Nordisk released real-world data on oral Wegovy and semaglutide in type 2 diabetes, while CFRA downgraded the stock to sell with a $38 target.

Fresh real-world evidence for Novo Nordisk's metabolic franchise arrived this week, but it did little to lift sentiment around the Danish drugmaker's shares. The company rolled out two separate datasets — one on an oral obesity treatment, the other on diabetes care — while a prominent research house cut its rating on the stock.

Switching from injections to a pill

Adults who moved from injectable GLP-1 medicines to the oral version of Wegovy shed an average of 4.1% of their body weight over three months, according to the retrospective OCTANE analysis Novo Nordisk published on 30 September. The treatment data came from the telehealth platform Ro.

Novo Nordisk was quick to flag the limits of the findings. As a retrospective review, OCTANE reflects everyday practice rather than the tightly controlled conditions of a registrational trial. Even so, a tablet offers a meaningful alternative for patients who find a regular injection schedule burdensome, and the company views pill formulations as a key strategic lever — one aimed at lowering the barrier to injection therapy and drawing in patient groups that have so far stayed on the sidelines.

Semaglutide versus tirzepatide in type 2 diabetes

A day earlier, on 29 September, the company released a much larger retrospective real-world study covering 636,525 adults with type 2 diabetes. In that analysis, escalating the dose of semaglutide was tied to a 6% lower risk of serious cardiovascular events than switching to tirzepatide.

Novo Nordisk stressed that the study design cannot establish causation. Still, the statistical comparison hands physicians a tangible argument when choosing between therapies — all the more so because cardiovascular complications weigh heavily in treatment decisions for people with type 2 diabetes. In a market where the battle for share is intense, the finding bolsters the Danish group's standing against rival options.

FDA extends review of hemophilia A candidate

Beyond the metabolic portfolio, attention is on the development pipeline. US regulators extended their review of denecimig, Novo Nordisk's hemophilia A candidate, because corrective work is needed at a manufacturing site. The FDA did not identify any problems with the drug's efficacy or safety.

Management said the delay will not weigh on its financial guidance for 2026, and the US launch is still targeted for the first half of 2027.

CFRA moves to sell

The scientific updates have not translated into market enthusiasm. On 22 September, CFRA downgraded Novo Nordisk's depositary receipts from hold to sell, attaching a price target of $38.00. The analysts cited an unfavorable risk-reward profile and mounting competitive pressure, and pointed to muted earnings growth over the coming years — though they did single out oral Wegovy as an opportunity in the nearer term.

Investors had already turned jittery about the company's long-term prospects. Shares fell noticeably after the preceding capital markets day, as management's growth targets met with skepticism on the Street.

Where the stock stands

In pre-market trading on Tuesday, the shares held steady at EUR 33.69, a gain of 0.7%. For the year to date, however, the stock is still down 23%. In the prior session it closed at EUR 33.33, a daily loss of 0.4%, with a year-to-date decline of 24%.