Novo Nordisk's Oral Bet Faces Its First Real Test as Legal Clouds Lift

Novo Nordisk shares climb 2.35% after antitrust case dismissed; Q2 beats, guidance improved, but CagriSema disappoints.

The Danish pharma giant's stock finally caught a bid on Friday, but the relief may be as much about courtroom news as it is about the company's own numbers. Shares in Novo Nordisk climbed 2.35 percent to EUR 40.86 in Frankfurt, helped along by a US federal judge's decision to dismiss an antitrust complaint filed by Strive Specialties against both Novo and rival Eli Lilly. That case, however, can be refiled — a reminder that the legal fog around the weight-loss market is far from cleared.

A Quarter That Beat Expectations, Sort Of

The share price reaction follows a second-quarter earnings report that topped analyst forecasts on earnings per share. Management, led by CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen, used the occasion to lift its full-year guidance — a notable shift. The company now expects 2026 sales to decline between 0 and 6 percent, a meaningful improvement over earlier, more downbeat projections. That revision came alongside the European launch of the oral version of Wegovy, the pill that Novo hopes will redefine its growth story.

Semaglutide — the active ingredient behind both Ozempic and Wegovy — still accounts for roughly 70 percent of quarterly revenue. And that concentration is precisely what keeps some analysts skeptical. Seeking Alpha maintains a Sell rating on the stock, pointing to patent expirations, manufacturing hiccups and pipeline disappointments, with expectations of at best flat growth in 2026.

The Pill: Momentum Building, Expectations Still High

The oral Wegovy rollout is now the company's most visible growth lever. In the UK, where the pill launched first, Novo claims a 90 percent market share and 300,000 patients within just three weeks. Germany follows on September 1, though its stricter reimbursement system could slow the pace compared with Britain's more permissive framework.

The numbers so far tell a story of acceleration rather than explosion. The pill generated DKK 3.2 billion in second-quarter sales, just shy of the DKK 3.3 billion consensus. Since its January debut, the tablet has racked up roughly five million prescriptions — with the latest million arriving in just four weeks. The trajectory is steepening, even if the absolute figures haven't yet matched the most exuberant forecasts.

Behind the scenes, Novo is investing EUR 432 million in its Irish manufacturing sites, specifically geared toward oral medications. The goal: put the supply constraints that plagued the injectable market for years firmly in the rearview mirror.

CagriSema's Diminished Promise

The oral pill isn't the only pipeline story, but the others have lost some luster. Expectations for CagriSema, the combination therapy for obesity, have cooled considerably since the spring. In February, Novo had to concede that the drug failed to demonstrate non-inferiority against Lilly's tirzepatide in a head-to-head study. Goldman Sachs responded by cutting its rating to Neutral and slashing its peak-sales estimate for CagriSema from USD 11.8 billion to USD 5 billion. Knudsen, for his part, remains publicly optimistic about the drug's prospects.

The Competitive Arithmetic Is Brutal

The gap with Eli Lilly keeps widening. Lilly's quarterly revenue surged 48 percent to USD 22.97 billion, powered by Mounjaro and Zepbound, and the company lifted its full-year guidance to USD 85–87 billion. In the US obesity and diabetes market, Lilly now commands a 60.9 percent share in the second quarter against Novo's 38.8 percent. The analyst consensus is unambiguous about which company is better positioned.

Novo hasn't been passive on the legal front. Late July saw the company file its own lawsuit against Lilly, alleging false advertising around dosage comparisons — a move Danish investors read as an offensive stance in the battle for the weight-loss market. Separately, Novo is pursuing legal action against Hims & Hers over compounded versions of its drugs. The FDA's push to restrict bulk compounding of semaglutide could, if successful, push many cheaper imitators off the market and steer patients back toward branded products.

Leadership Under Fire

The operational picture is complicated by internal friction. According to Danish newspaper Børsen, CEO Mike Doustdar urged employees to work harder and faster in response to the crisis — comments that unions branded as "unworthy" and a "hard signal." Novo has already cut 5,000 jobs in Denmark, while the Copenhagen-listed shares have fallen from around DKK 1,000 to roughly DKK 300. Investors, per Børsen, are increasingly vocal about a lack of strategic clarity from Doustdar regarding long-term growth and the competitive response to Lilly.

What's Next

The stock still sits about 25.5 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 54.86 from late January, and trades just above its 200-day moving average at EUR 40.30 — a technical picture that suggests consolidation on shaky ground rather than a decisive turn.

For those staying the course, Novo pays a dividend of USD 0.5786 per share on August 25, with the record date set for August 17. The bigger question is whether Friday's legal win and the German pill launch can translate into sustained momentum. The company's capital markets day in September should offer a clearer read on how seriously management takes the GLP-1 competition — and how much confidence it truly has in the pill strategy. Until then, the shares look likely to keep oscillating in a narrow band, awaiting a catalyst with real weight.