Novo Nordisk's Crossroads: Analysts Split as Injectable Strength Offsets Oral Pill Doubts

JPMorgan lifts Novo Nordisk price target on strong Ozempic demand, while Berenberg downgrades on oral Wegovy competition. Key OASIS-5 trial could reshape pill economics.

The Danish drugmaker finds itself at an unusual inflection point. JPMorgan has just lifted its price target on Novo Nordisk shares to 275 Danish kroner from 250, while Berenberg has moved in the opposite direction, cutting its rating to Hold from Buy with a reduced target of $47 from $50. The divergence captures a company whose growth narrative is becoming increasingly bifurcated.

Richard Vosser, the JPMorgan analyst behind the August 24 upgrade, raised his 2026 revenue forecast by 5 percent, citing limited generic erosion for Ozempic and stronger-than-expected international demand for injectable Wegovy. The bank's earnings-per-share estimates for 2026 through 2030 were bumped up by 4 to 8 percent. Yet the Neutral rating stayed put, and the reasoning reveals the nuance: oral Wegovy's US launch momentum is fading, and JPMorgan trimmed its 2026 projections for that formulation accordingly.

The market took the news positively, with shares climbing 3.5 percent on Tuesday to €41.60. That puts the stock just shy of its 50-day moving average of €41.71 and roughly 3.4 percent above the 200-day line — a marked improvement for a share that had lost 12 percent over the preceding twelve months.

A Study That Could Reshape the Pill Economics

The oral formulation remains the pivotal swing factor. On August 12, Novo Nordisk initiated the late-stage OASIS-5 trial, designed to test lower doses of the Wegovy pill and identify the lowest effective maintenance dose. The implications extend beyond efficacy: a successful outcome could improve the side-effect profile, trim manufacturing costs, and bolster adherence — all of which would strengthen the oral product's competitive position against Eli Lilly's pipeline.

CEO Mike Doustdar has pushed back against the notion that the obesity market is a winner-take-all contest with Lilly, arguing on August 13 that new oral options will support demand for differentiated treatments. Management's confidence is also reflected in the buyback program — roughly 28.9 million B-shares repurchased since February 4 as of August 14 — and a raised full-year guidance delivered with second-quarter results.

The company has also been building out its infrastructure. A new research hub in London is taking shape, an AWS partnership aims to accelerate AI-driven drug discovery, and the US launch of Awiqli adds another diabetes portfolio component. On the legal front, a Dutch court granted a preliminary injunction blocking Ceban from selling a semaglutide nasal spray on patent grounds — a procedural win that protects intellectual property without constituting a final legal resolution.

The Risks Stacking Up

The bear case is equally concrete. Berenberg's mid-August downgrade reflected expectations of intensifying competition in the oral obesity market during the second half of the year. The Scholar Rock episode illustrates operational vulnerabilities: the company withdrew its European filing for an SMA drug after problems emerged at a manufacturing site owned by Novo Nordisk, putting supply-chain quality controls under scrutiny.

The microbiome collaboration with Novonesis won't yield commercially relevant results until 2027, offering little near-term catalyst. Chart positioning remains fragile — the stock trades 2.7 percent below its 50-day average, even as the gap to the 200-day line has narrowed to roughly one percent. Should OASIS-5 disappoint, the 100-day support at €39.25 could come into play.

A Two-Speed Growth Trajectory

JPMorgan's revised outlook sketches a more measured path than the market's earlier enthusiasm suggested: flat revenue for 2026 at constant exchange rates, followed by roughly 1 percent growth in 2027 and around 2 percent in 2028. A meaningful acceleration, the bank argues, hinges on the progress of Zenagamtide, the company's next-generation candidate.

The stock's 30-day realized volatility of 40 percent underscores how much uncertainty remains priced in. Doustdar said on August 5 that the company is evaluating multiple acquisition targets and intends to accelerate research pace, though no transaction has materialized.

The interim dividend payment scheduled for August 18 has now been completed, offering a measure of financial stability. But the more consequential catalyst sits further out: first reliable data from the OASIS-5 trial, which runs through 2028. Until then, investors must weigh the international strength of injectable Wegovy against the deceleration of its oral counterpart in the US — and decide which half of the story carries more weight.