Novo Nordisk's China Pill Race Tightens as BMO Trims Its Enthusiasm to a Higher Target

Eli Lilly has beaten Novo Nordisk to China's first approval for an oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug, Reuters reported, handing the Danish group a competitive gap in a market forecasters expect to expand roughly tenfold within a few years. Novo's own application for a Wegovy pill has been under review since August, leaving the timing of approval — and the pricing and demand that follow — central to how the company's position in the country shapes up.

JPMorgan sees annual GLP-1 weight-management sales in China reaching 30 billion yuan in five to seven years, against an estimated 3–4 billion yuan today. Lilly's orforglipron now has a foot in that door. How much the head start is worth in commercial terms depends on when the product actually goes on sale; the US rival has not disclosed pricing or availability.

Novo is not starting from scratch in the country. Its Wegovy injection business there is growing quickly, with third-quarter 2026 revenue up 184% to DKK 327 million — evidence of appetite for its obesity therapies. A domestic tablet approval could bolt onto that base, provided Novo reaches enough patients and holds its own against rival offerings. Chinese manufacturers are developing competing drugs alongside the international players.

The oral franchise already carries weight in Novo's numbers. The Wegovy pill generated DKK 5.4 billion of revenue in the third quarter of 2026, and US volumes climbed about 20% from the prior quarter. That makes access to additional markets more important to the growth story, as long as extra volume can offset pressure on prices and competition. The pending Chinese clearance therefore touches a meaningful slice of the future product mix. A further threat looms in 2027, when generic copies of semaglutide are expected in China — a development that could sharpen price competition and cap the returns from a later tablet launch.

A Higher Target, Same Rating

BMO Capital lifted its price target on Novo's NYSE-listed ADR to $44 from $40 on 6 November, according to media reports, while analyst Evan Seigerman kept his "Market Perform" rating. He pointed to Wegovy pill sales beating market expectations — but questioned whether that momentum can last through 2027. The target move came without an upgrade.

The reassessment followed Novo's 4 November guidance raise for 2026, which now points to constant-currency growth of -2% to +2% in both adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit. In the third quarter, adjusted sales rose 4% in constant currency, growth chief executive Mike Doustdar attributed to the obesity portfolio, citing sustained US demand for the Wegovy pill and the first international launches. Adjusted operating profit jumped 27% at constant currency to DKK 31.7 billion in the same period.

Peer actions were mixed. One analyst cut a price target to DKK 312 on 5 November while keeping a neutral stance; another raised its target to DKK 240 and stuck with a sell recommendation.

Pipeline Bets and a Parting of Ways

Novo is also building for the next generation of oral treatments. On 29 September it secured rights to HRS-1596 from Hengrui Pharma, agreeing a $300 million upfront payment plus up to $2.3 billion in potential milestones, along with sales-based royalties. The exclusive rights cover worldwide markets excluding mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. The candidate is designed as a once-weekly dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist. Hengrui has won Chinese clearance to begin Phase I trials; human safety, tolerability and efficacy data are still pending.

Not every collaboration is moving forward. Novo told Korro Bio on 3 November that it was terminating their research collaboration and license agreement, per a Korro mandatory disclosure. The exit takes effect 1 February 2027. According to Korro's filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, no second research milestone was designated and no milestone payments were earned.

For Novo's next phase of growth in China, the outstanding Wegovy approval remains the decisive variable. The Hengrui partnership, by contrast, opens a longer-range avenue beyond the territories it excludes.