Novo Nordisk's CagriSema Data Impress on Weight Loss, but BMO Sees Ozempic Pressure Ahead

Fresh clinical data on Novo Nordisk's experimental obesity drug CagriSema have given the Danish drugmaker a 2.3% share-price lift, yet the readout does nothing to resolve the separate revenue worries that prompted BMO Capital Markets to trim its price target earlier this month.

The results, presented at the annual meeting of the Menopause Society, come from exploratory post-hoc analyses of the Phase 3 REDEFINE 1 trial. In 2,309 women, CagriSema produced an average weight loss of 25% after 68 weeks, against 3% for placebo. The drug combines semaglutide with cagrilintide and is injected once a week. Novo Nordisk confirmed the figure first reported by Reuters.

The effect extended beyond the scale. Waist circumference fell by an average of 20.5 centimetres on CagriSema versus 4.7 centimetres on placebo. Some 68.7% of treated women shed at least 20% of their body weight, compared with 1.8% in the placebo arm. Reuters noted that the data could help Novo regain ground against Eli Lilly in the battle for the obesity market.

A Closer Look at the Subgroup Findings

A separate analysis sorted outcomes by menopausal status. Average weight loss reached 26.7% before menopause, 24.8% during the transition and 23.1% after menopause. That breakdown covered 1,902 women. Because menopausal status was determined retrospectively and was neither prospectively recorded nor biochemically confirmed, the differences still require further scrutiny and do not establish that menopausal status drives the drug's effect.

For context, Reuters reported an average weight loss of 22.7% across the full study population of more than 3,400 adults. The women's analysis and the overall result therefore rest on different participant groups.

Tolerability remains a key part of the picture. Across the entire REDEFINE 1 trial, 5.9% of participants on CagriSema discontinued treatment because of side effects, versus 3.5% on placebo. Gastrointestinal adverse events affected 79.6% of those taking CagriSema and 39.9% of those on placebo. These figures apply to the full study and should not be read as a separate safety assessment of the women's subgroup. The efficacy data also do not substitute for a regulatory review of benefits and risks.

Regulatory Clock Still Ticking

Novo Nordisk filed its US marketing application in December 2025, and the Food and Drug Administration's decision on the weight-management indication is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. CagriSema is not yet approved in the United States, and its safety and efficacy have not been established by regulators.

Meanwhile, BMO analyst Evan Seigerman cut his price target to $40 from $47 on 12 October, keeping a "Market Perform" rating. He cited a demanding comparison base for the third quarter and shrinking US market share, both of which weigh on sales of Ozempic. That call predates the CagriSema release and should not be read as a response to it.

The two strands of the story sit on different levels. CagriSema offers clinical grounds for possible future competitive gains, while BMO's concerns centre on the revenue trajectory of a different product. Good news on one front does not automatically offset pressure on the other.

November 4 Becomes the Next Test

Novo Nordisk has scheduled publication of its financial results for the first three quarters of 2026 for 4 November 2026. After the data-driven rally, that date shifts attention to the business itself — specifically, how the clinical promise stacks up against the commercial reality.