Novo Nordisk's Buyback Nears 10.6 Billion DKK as Washington and the FDA Both Slow the Story

Novo Nordisk shares finished Thursday's session at EUR 34.99, a gain of 2.6%, though the company pointed to no single operational trigger for the move. The advance offers some relief after a bruising stretch for the Danish drugmaker, whose stock has shed 21% since the start of the year.

Rather than a company-specific catalyst, attention has shifted to two external forces pulling in opposite directions: political pressure on pricing in the United States and a regulatory holdup on a pipeline asset.

Trump Signals an Ozempic Price Cut

Media reports on Wednesday quoted US President Donald Trump as saying the price of Ozempic — Novo's flagship diabetes and weight-loss treatment — would come down. Novo Nordisk confirmed it has held talks with the US administration over the so-called Most-Favored-Nation rule, but no binding agreement exists and the company has not verified any price change.

That leaves the practical scope of any adjustment to Ozempic pricing unclear. Washington's periodic pushes to cap medicine costs have a track record of unsettling investors in the sector, and the US market remains a delicate one for the Danish group.

Analysts are already turning cautious. Berenberg downgraded the stock to Hold while keeping its price target at $47. The move follows Citi's October 9 decision to trim its target to DKK 296 from DKK 310, maintaining a Neutral rating; the analysts cited limited room for margin expansion through 2030, even with improved prospects for the planned Wegovy tablet.

BMO Capital's Evan Seigerman cut his target to $40 from $47 on Monday, sticking with a Market Perform rating. He flagged a demanding comparison base and eroding US market share as factors that could weigh on Ozempic's revenue potential.

FDA Pushes Back Denecimig Review

On the regulatory front, the US Food and Drug Administration has extended its review of Denecimig, Novo's hemophilia A candidate. The delay stems from ongoing remediation work at a manufacturing site. The agency set no new decision timeline but reported no deficiencies related to clinical efficacy or safety.

Novo Nordisk reaffirmed its full-year 2026 financial guidance despite the setback and still aims to launch the drug in the US during the first half of 2027.

India Bet Targets 15–20% GLP-1 Growth

Longer-term expansion plans drew their own share of attention. Novo's India managing director projected annual growth of 15% to 20% for the country's GLP-1 market, with an obesity pill launch targeted for around mid-2027, subject to regulatory approval. India's large population and rising burden of metabolic disease make it a strategically important territory, and an oral therapy could open the door to patient groups beyond Novo's established Western markets.

Buyback Rolls On Ahead of Q3 Report

Meanwhile, management continues to return capital to shareholders. Between October 5 and 9, the company repurchased 1,245,000 B shares. Through October 9, the buyback — part of a twelve-month program launched in February worth up to DKK 15 billion — had accumulated 37,849,179 B shares at a total cost of DKK 10,558,876,422.

Investors will get a fuller read on operations on November 4, 2026, when Novo Nordisk publishes its detailed interim report for the third quarter of 2026. That release is expected to shed light on US business trends and the status of talks with American authorities.