Novo Nordisk Puts Cheaper Wegovy Doses to the Test as Buybacks and Legal Wins Stack Up

Novo Nordisk launches OASIS-5 trial for lower-dose oral Wegovy, targeting cost-sensitive patients as Eli Lilly competition intensifies; stock remains under pressure.

Novo Nordisk is probing whether a lighter version of its oral Wegovy pill can still deliver — launching a Phase 3 trial that tests two lower-dose variants against placebo in 450 adults with a BMI of 30 or above (or 27 plus a comorbidity). The OASIS-5 study stretches over 60 weeks and is slated to run until 2028, meaning hard data won't land for some time. But the strategic logic is immediate: BMO Capital Markets notes that more than two-thirds of US patients already opt for the two lowest available doses, which cost self-payers roughly half the price of higher strengths. CEO Mike Doustdar framed the trial as scientific validation of what patients are already doing — establishing the minimum effective dose rather than guessing at it.

The timing is no accident. Eli Lilly is bearing down on an obesity market projected to hit $100 billion by 2030, and a cheaper, lower-dose oral option could be the difference between retaining cost-sensitive patients and losing them to a rival. Doustdar pushed back against the narrative of a two-horse winner-take-all war, pointing instead to demand for differentiated products like the oral Wegovy formulation and a broader pipeline that extends beyond the GLP-1 spotlight.

Capital returns and courtroom wins

While the clinic does its work, the company has been active on the financial and legal fronts. Between August 10 and 14, Novo repurchased one million B-shares at an average price of 303.59 Danish kroner, bringing the current buyback program's total to 14,125,000 shares. Since the program kicked off on February 4, the company has pulled 28,884,179 B-shares off the market entirely.

August 14 also marked the ex-dividend date at the Copenhagen exchange, with shareholders entitled to 3.75 kroner per share — a routine calendar event rather than an operational signal.

On the legal side, a federal court in San Antonio dismissed a cartel lawsuit brought by Strive Specialties in full, while a Dutch court issued an injunction aimed at shielding patients from unapproved, illegally manufactured semaglutide nasal spray. Neither ruling carries direct financial weight, but both reinforce Novo's defenses against copycat products. The company also named Amazon Web Services its preferred AI partner for drug discovery, a move that underscores the growing role of data-driven molecule design in its R&D engine.

Stock still searching for a floor

None of this has moved the needle much on the share price. The stock closed Wednesday at €39.78, up a modest 0.7% on the day — but that masks a 8.5% decline over the past 30 days and a 9.6% drop since the start of the year. The shares sit 27% below the January 52-week high of €54.86 and roughly 32% above the early-March low, parking the stock in the middle of its yearly range.

The reaction to the OASIS-5 announcement was mixed across trading venues, with slight losses in Germany offset by gains elsewhere. At €40.24, the stock trades about 3.2% below its 50-day average of €41.55 — a technical tell that the short-term trend hasn't turned, despite operational progress.

Analysts remain cautious. Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its neutral stance on Wednesday with a price target of 290 Danish kroner, signaling little conviction in near-term upside even after the company raised its annual guidance roughly two weeks ago. Berenberg had already downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold about a week earlier, cutting its target to $47 on intensifying competition in the obesity space.

The picture for investors is a study in contrasts: a raised outlook and aggressive buybacks suggest management confidence in a medium-term recovery, while persistent pricing pressure in the GLP-1 segment and a hesitant analyst community keep a lid on enthusiasm. With OASIS-5 results years away, the near-term narrative will be shaped less by the trial and more by the interplay of competitive dynamics, pricing strategy, and whether the buyback program can eventually help the stock find firmer footing.