Novo Nordisk Keeps Buying Back Stock as BMO Cuts Target and CagriSema Data Draw Scrutiny

Novo Nordisk has spent DKK 10,875,024,304 on its own shares so far, the Danish drugmaker disclosed on Monday — a figure that lands just weeks before investors get their first hard look at how the underlying business is actually performing.

The repurchases, executed under a twelve-month program that kicked off on 4 February and carries a ceiling of up to DKK 15 billion, have so far covered 39,074,179 B-shares at an average price of 278.32 DKK. In the most recent weekly reporting window alone, the company bought back 1,225,000 B-shares for DKK 316,147,881.

Those numbers document capital actually deployed rather than a boardroom authorization sitting on the shelf. What they cannot do is tell shareholders anything about revenue growth, margin pressure or the commercial trajectory of the portfolio. A buyback answers the question of where cash is going, not whether the drugs are selling.

A Brokerage Downgrade on the Other Side of the Ledger

That distinction matters because the operational picture has darkened in at least one analyst's view. On 12 October, BMO Capital's Evan Seigerman trimmed his price target to $40 from $47 while keeping a "Market Perform" rating on the stock. His reasoning centered on a tough year-over-year comparison and eroding US market share — headwinds he expects to weigh on Ozempic sales in the third quarter of 2026. The benchmark he cited is the third quarter of 2025, and the call is a forecast, not a reported result.

The buyback program itself, meanwhile, represents neither a fresh initiative nor an expansion of the existing envelope. It is the continuation of a plan already in motion, and its significance for valuation lies in steady execution rather than in any signal about the commercial outlook.

CagriSema: Encouraging Numbers, Narrow Scope

Where the pipeline is concerned, Novo Nordisk published a detailed readout on Tuesday that offers a counterweight of sorts. A post-hoc analysis of the Phase 3 REDEFINE 1 trial showed that 2,309 women treated with CagriSema achieved an average weight loss of 25.0% after 68 weeks, assuming treatment adherence. The placebo arm lost 3.0%.

Reuters framed the findings as potential support for CagriSema's case as a successor to Wegovy, and reported that US-listed Novo Nordisk shares rose following publication. The caveats, though, are substantial. This is an exploratory analysis conducted after the trial concluded, and it covers a subgroup — not the full study population. CagriSema has not been approved for any indication.

The headline result from the complete trial was 22.7% weight loss, which fell short of the company's own 25% target. Treating the 25.0% subgroup figure as equivalent to the overall study outcome would misstate what the data actually show.

What 4 November Will Settle

Novo Nordisk is scheduled to report results for the first nine months of 2026 on 4 November, with a conference call to follow. That date is where the strands converge: the buyback speaks to capital allocation, the CagriSema analysis to medical potential, and the earnings release to how the business has performed under pressure.

None of these three elements, taken alone, neutralizes the US headwinds BMO has flagged. The test ahead is whether Novo Nordisk can contain the operational strain while converting an experimental product's early promise into something that shows up in the numbers.