Novo Nordisk Flags Stolen Insulin Pens as Traders Brace for Nine-Month Update

Novo Nordisk has warned that a batch of insulin pens stolen from a Dutch wholesaler could be passed off to consumers as weight-loss drugs. The Danish drugmaker said the devices contain insulin rather than semaglutide, the active ingredient behind its blockbuster obesity treatments, and that using them without a diabetes diagnosis carries serious health risks. The alert lands amid stubborn demand for slimming medicines, a market that has repeatedly drawn criminal resale schemes.

The warning came on Friday, the same session in which the stock closed at EUR 34.49 in European trading, leaving it down 22% since the start of the year.

Investors now have their eyes fixed on the nine-month financial report due on November 4, and the run-up to that release has produced a split verdict on the shares. UBS reaffirmed a "Neutral" rating on Thursday with a target of 332 DKK, telling clients it expects revenue broadly in line with consensus but a operating result roughly 3% below the consensus estimate. Nordea took the other side on October 9, lifting its target to 380 DKK from 350 DKK while keeping a "Buy" recommendation.

Targets trimmed on both sides of the Atlantic

The more cautious camp has been busy. BMO Capital's Evan Seigerman cut his target to $40 on October 12 and kept a "Market Perform" rating, pointing to a demanding year-earlier comparison for Ozempic in the US and to market-share losses that look set to slow revenue growth in the third quarter. Citi moved on October 9, lowering its target to 296 DKK with a "Neutral" stance, citing heavier research and development spending and expectations of largely flat margins that weigh on earnings prospects for the years ahead.

Competition is sharpening at the same time. According to Reuters, the relevant committee of the European Medicines Agency backed approval of Foundayo on Thursday. The Eli Lilly drug becomes the second oral obesity treatment to win such a recommendation, following Novo Nordisk's Wegovy tablet.

Pipeline and buyback keep running in parallel

Elsewhere in the portfolio, Novo Nordisk said on October 2 that the US Food and Drug Administration is still reviewing its haemophilia candidate Denecimig. No new timetable for a final decision was given, though the agency raised no concerns over clinical efficacy or safety data, according to the company.

Management continues to lean on capital returns to underpin the share price. Under the buyback programme launched in February, worth up to DKK 15 billion, the company kept repurchasing its own stock, confirming on October 12 that further B-shares were bought in the first week of October alone. Whether operating momentum can steady expectations should become clearer when the third-quarter figures land.