Novo Nordisk Faces a Two-Front Squeeze as Lilly's Oral Pill Nears EU Approval and the FDA Keeps Denecimig Waiting

Novo Nordisk is heading into its third-quarter 2026 results with the sell side split down the middle, and two separate pressures — one competitive, one regulatory — clouding the picture. The Danish drugmaker's shares closed Friday's European session at EUR 34.49, down 22% since the start of the year and 37% below their 52-week high.

On the bullish side of the ledger sits Nordea. On 9 October the Scandinavian bank lifted its price target on the stock from DKK 350 to DKK 380 while reiterating a "Buy" rating. UBS is far less convinced: the Swiss lender, which reaffirmed its "Neutral" stance and a DKK 332 target, expects revenue broadly in line with consensus but models operating profit roughly 3% below the market's estimates.

A rival pill clears a European hurdle

The competitive backdrop darkened late last week. An expert committee of the European Medicines Agency backed marketing approval for Foundayo, the weight-loss treatment from US rival Eli Lilly, according to Reuters. That makes Foundayo the second oral obesity drug to win the panel's endorsement, following Novo's own Wegovy tablet.

BMO Capital Markets had already moved first, cutting its target on the Danish group from $47 to $40 on Monday while keeping a "Market Perform" rating. The brokerage pointed squarely at headwinds for Ozempic, the diabetes franchise that remains one of Novo's biggest revenue engines.

Denecimig review drags on with no new deadline

Pipeline news offered little relief. On 2 October Novo updated investors on Denecimig, its haemophilia A candidate, disclosing that the US Food and Drug Administration is still reviewing the compound. The agency gave no fresh timeline for a decision. The holdup stems from remediation work at a manufacturing site rather than any finding on efficacy or safety, which the FDA did not flag.

Buybacks keep cash flowing to shareholders

Management, meanwhile, is leaning on its own balance sheet to steady the stock. Novo repurchased 1,245,000 of its own B shares across the preceding trading days, the company reported on Monday. The purchases fall under a programme authorised to run as high as DKK 15 billion, and the group confirmed on 12 October that further B shares were bought during the first week of the month.

That steady return of capital gives investors something to hold onto while attention shifts to the quarterly report — and to whether the split verdict from Nordea and UBS proves closer to the mark.