Novo Nordisk Braces for Q3 Print as Lilly's Foundayo Wins EMA Nod and Broker Targets Diverge

Novo Nordisk investors are heading into the company's third-quarter update with plenty to weigh, and the sell side is not speaking with one voice. UBS reaffirmed its "Neutral" rating on the Danish drugmaker on Thursday with a price target of 332 DKK, telling clients it expects revenue in line with consensus but operating profit roughly 3% below the market's estimates.

That caution sits alongside a more bullish call from Nordea, which on 9 October lifted its target to 380 DKK from 350 DKK and kept a "Buy" recommendation. Citi Research moved the other way the same day, trimming its target to 296 DKK from 310 DKK while holding "Neutral." The US bank tied the cut to management's ambition of keeping margins broadly stable through 2030, and in response lowered its forecast for annual earnings-per-share growth between 2027 and 2030 to 9% from 12%.

A crowded calendar and a competitive threat

The results themselves land on 4 November 2026, with Novo Nordisk due to publish first-nine-month figures at 07:30 CET. Ahead of that, attention has shifted to the obesity franchise, where the European Medicines Agency's relevant committee on Thursday backed approval of Foundayo. The Eli Lilly drug becomes the second oral obesity treatment to receive such a recommendation, following Novo Nordisk's Wegovy tablet.

Elsewhere in the pipeline, the company said on 2 October that the US Food and Drug Administration's review of its haemophilia A candidate Denecimig is still running. No new timetable for a final decision was given, but the agency flagged no deficiencies in clinical efficacy or safety data, according to the company. Because no efficacy or safety concerns were raised, Novo Nordisk's financial guidance for 2026 stands unchanged, and the group is targeting a US launch in the first half of 2027, subject to regulatory clearance. The delay stems from remediation work at a manufacturing site.

US pressure and a looming comparison

BMO Capital cut its target to $40 from $47 about a week ago, keeping a "Market Perform" rating. The brokerage pointed to eroding US market share and a demanding year-on-year comparison for Ozempic, the company's biggest revenue driver. A positive gross-to-net effect of DKK 2 billion in the third quarter of 2025, it noted, could arithmetically magnify the year-on-year decline in the third quarter of 2026.

Management is meanwhile pushing into faster-growing markets. Vikrant Shrotriya, managing director of Novo Nordisk India, voiced confidence in the local business on Thursday, projecting annual growth of 15% to 20% for the Indian GLP-1 segment. The company plans to launch higher-dose semaglutide formulations and an oral obesity therapy there around mid-2027, subject to approvals, with applications already under review.

Shareholders are also being supported through buybacks. Novo Nordisk said on 12 October that it had repurchased further B shares in the first week of October under its programme of up to DKK 15 billion.

The stock closed at EUR 34.49 on Friday, leaving it down 22% since the start of the year.