Novo Nordisk Bets on Milan Data Deluge to Halt Eli Lilly's Momentum

Novo Nordisk plans 44 EASD abstracts in Milan, including semaglutide vs tirzepatide data, as shares lag and buybacks continue.

Novo Nordisk is preparing to flood the European diabetes and obesity circuit with clinical evidence, unveiling 44 scientific abstracts at the EASD congress in Milan from September 28 to October 2. The sheer breadth of the presentation marks a deliberate shift toward showcasing scientific depth at a moment when the Danish drugmaker's market position is under mounting pressure.

The stock traded at EUR 37.09 on the day of the announcement, up 1.0 percent, yet it remains 9.2 percent below its 50-day moving average of EUR 40.84. Year-to-date the shares have shed 16 percent, and over twelve months the decline reaches 23 percent. The relative strength index sits at 37.2, a reading that points to persistently weak momentum.

A Direct Shot at Eli Lilly

The centerpiece of the Milan agenda lands on September 29, when Novo Nordisk presents COMPETE SWITCH CV data pitting semaglutide 2.0 mg against tirzepatide — a head-to-head comparison with Eli Lilly's rival product. That same day brings REIMAGINE-1 results for CagriSema, covering body composition and eating behavior.

The following day, September 30, the company rolls out Phase 2b findings for zenagamtide in type 2 diabetes alongside OCTANE real-world data on the oral Wegovy tablet. That observational study tracks weight trajectories in patients who switched from injectable semaglutide or tirzepatide to the pill form — a dataset with direct bearing on how the oral formulation is received in the market. A press briefing on the results is scheduled for September 30, with proteomics data from the FLOW study to follow on October 1.

The competitive subtext is hard to miss. According to IQVIA figures for the second quarter of 2026, Novo Nordisk holds a 38.8 percent share of the obesity market, while Eli Lilly commands 60.9 percent. That gap explains the intensified pipeline communication: the company wants to demonstrate scientific substance in the face of eroding ground.

Buybacks Signal Confidence Despite the Selloff

While the Milan program unfolds, Novo Nordisk has been steadily repurchasing its own shares. Since February 4, the company has bought back 33,084,179 B-shares at an average price of DKK 281.89 each, for a total volume of roughly DKK 9.3 billion. It now holds 47,124,876 B-shares as treasury stock, equivalent to 1.1 percent of share capital. The current tranche of up to DKK 11.2 billion runs until February 1, 2027, forming part of a broader DKK 15 billion framework launched in February.

That scale of buying suggests management sees a solid capital base and wants to signal confidence in its own valuation. The stock closed the previous session at EUR 36.73, roughly 33 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 54.86 reached at the end of January — a discount that gives buybacks at these levels added weight.

London Strategy Day Looms Over the Narrative

The next real test comes on September 21, when Novo Nordisk presents its revised corporate strategy in London. The date falls as investors seek answers to questions raised by Morgan Stanley's downgrade the previous Friday: how does the company intend to secure medium-term growth once semaglutide's patent protection expires in 2031? The ingredient behind Wegovy and Ozempic accounts for roughly 75 percent of this year's revenue, according to the bank's estimate. The strategy day should reveal which new products and growth areas management has in mind for the post-patent era.

Clinical progress is already providing some ballast. On September 7, Novo Nordisk reported positive Phase 3 data from the STEP Young trial: 40.4 percent of children aged six to under twelve who received weekly semaglutide were no longer classified as obese after 68 weeks, compared with zero percent in the placebo group. No new safety concerns emerged regarding growth or pubertal development. Detailed results will be presented in November at the ObesityWeek conference in Washington. Such data could open up new patient groups over the medium term and broaden the growth base beyond established indications.

A New Name, an Old Bull

Alongside the clinical and financial maneuvering, the company is rebranding. Under the slogan "Lasting Health Starts Now," it will trade under the shortened name "Novo," paired with a new corporate culture dubbed "The Novo Way." The legal structure as Novo Nordisk A/S remains unchanged, and the Apis bull logo is being modernized rather than replaced. The move aims to sharpen recognition in the core diabetes and obesity markets — whether it also restores investor confidence will become clearer on September 21.

For now, the Milan congress offers the most immediate catalyst. The direct semaglutide-versus-tirzepatide comparison on September 29 could shed light on relative efficacy against the main competitor, while the real-world Wegovy tablet data on September 30 will be watched for clues on how well patients tolerate the switch from injection to pill. Until then, Novo Nordisk's shares remain in a technically strained position, with the market waiting for hard data to justify a change in direction.