Novo Nordisk Bets on Buybacks and a $2.6 Billion China Deal to Ride Out a Bruising Year

Novo Nordisk leans on DKK 10.55bn in buybacks and a Hengrui licensing deal as analysts cut targets on fading US Ozempic momentum.

Novo Nordisk is leaning hard on two levers as 2026 wears on: an aggressive share repurchase program and a freshly inked licensing deal that could reshape its metabolic pipeline. Whether either is enough to reverse sentiment is the question now dogging investors.

The Danish drugmaker bought back 1,245,000 B-shares between October 5 and 9, spending roughly DKK 311.6 million. Cumulative repurchases since the program launched on February 4, 2026 have now passed DKK 10.55 billion, with total outlays reaching DKK 10,247,270,869. Against a ceiling of up to DKK 15 billion, management has already committed the bulk of the authorized firepower.

That steady capital return signals confidence in the balance sheet. The market, however, has been slow to reward it. The stock closed Monday at EUR 34.56 and last changed hands around EUR 34.70, down 21% to 22% year-to-date. It also sits 12% below its 200-day moving average of EUR 39.29 — a technical gap that underscores how persistent the selling pressure has been.

Brokerages Trim Targets as US Momentum Fades

The more consequential battle is being fought over US revenue, particularly for Ozempic. On October 12, BMO Capital's Evan Seigerman cut his price target to $40 from $47 while keeping a Market Perform rating. He flagged eroding US market share and a punishing comparison base in the third quarter of 2026. The year-earlier period benefited from a positive one-off of roughly DKK 2 billion tied to gross-to-net adjustments — a tailwind that could make the current quarter's US sales decline look steeper than it is.

Citi Research followed on October 9, lowering its target to DKK 296 from DKK 310 with a Neutral stance. The bank expects margins to stay broadly flat through 2030, capped in part by heavy research and development spending. It also trimmed its projected annual earnings-per-share growth rate for 2027 to 2030 from 12% to 9%. Slowing prescription volumes and price concessions on Ozempic rank among the near-term risks Citi identified.

A Pipeline Built for the Long Haul

Hoping to reduce reliance on any single product, Novo Nordisk has been busy on the business development front. Late in September, the company signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals for HRS-1596, a once-weekly oral GLP-1/GIP candidate. The pact grants Novo Nordisk development, manufacturing and commercialization rights everywhere outside mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.

Terms call for a $300 million upfront payment, with the total potential value reaching up to $2.6 billion through milestone payments and royalties. The transaction is slated to close in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Clinical readouts offer additional reasons for optimism. In a STEP-UP sub-analysis, 88.5% of participants with liver fat above 5% fell below that threshold after 72 weeks on injectable Wegovy. The OCTANE study, meanwhile, pointed to the promise of an oral formulation: patients who switched from injectable GLP-1 therapies to oral Wegovy shed an average of 4.1% of body weight after three months. And among adults with type 2 diabetes, an analysis of 636,525 patients found a 6% lower risk of major cardiovascular events when the semaglutide dose was raised to 2 mg, compared with switching to tirzepatide.

Regulatory Snags and Competitive Threats

The bear case draws on regulatory delays and intensifying competition. Roughly two weeks ago, the FDA extended its review of Denecimig, an investigational hemophilia A treatment, citing needed fixes at a manufacturing site and offering no new timeline. Novo Nordisk confirmed there were no deficiencies in the clinical data and said its 2026 financial outlook remains unaffected. Even so, the planned US launch — contingent on approval — has slipped to the first half of 2027. The stock has gained 4.5% to 4.9% since the disclosure.

Should US price concessions accelerate or further production issues surface, mid-term earnings estimates could erode further. If rivals capture share in the lucrative obesity segment before new products such as CagriSema are widely available, the growth narrative could wobble. Margin stabilization might then prove a floor rather than a transitional phase.

November 4 Is the Next Reckoning

For now, buyback support and a loyal GLP-1 customer base are keeping the downside in check. But if confidence in US pricing power cracks and upcoming figures reveal a sharper slowdown than modeled, valuation pressure will likely return.

The next milestone is set: on November 4, 2026, at 07:30 CET, Novo Nordisk will publish results for the first three quarters of 2026. Only then will investors learn how deeply US rebates and base effects have dented the numbers. Until that report lands, the stock remains a tug-of-war between supportive buybacks and cautious analyst calls.