Novo Nordisk Bets EUR 1.165 Billion on Longer-Lasting Injections as Pipeline Delivers Mixed Signals

Novo Nordisk secures worldwide rights to Nanexa's PharmaShell for long-acting peptide shots, with up to EUR 1.165 billion in payments.

Novo Nordisk has moved to shore up its post-Semaglutide future, securing an exclusive worldwide licence to the PharmaShell technology platform from Swedish drug delivery specialist Nanexa. The deal, announced today, covers as many as five development programmes for long-acting injectable peptide medicines, spanning obesity, type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic conditions.

The price tag underscores how seriously the Danish group views the arrangement. Nanexa stands to collect up to EUR 1.165 billion in total, split between EUR 615 million in upfront and milestone-linked payments tied to development and regulatory progress, with the remaining tranches contingent on sales thresholds. Low single-digit royalties on global net sales round out the terms. Novo Nordisk will handle worldwide development and commercialisation of any resulting therapies on its own.

A Race to Stretch Dosing Intervals

At the heart of the bet is a straightforward commercial question: can Novo Nordisk move peptide medicines from weekly injections to monthly or even quarterly administration? That is precisely what PharmaShell is designed to enable. In obesity and diabetes care, convenience of use increasingly shapes market share and pricing power alongside raw efficacy. If the company can establish genuinely long-acting formulations, it would gain a meaningful buffer against the pricing erosion that follows once copycat competitors arrive.

The urgency is hard to miss. Semaglutide accounted for more than half of group revenue last year, and its US patent protection runs out in 2032. Management must show investors well before then how it intends to replace that income stream.

Competitive pressure is mounting in parallel. Only yesterday, the US Food and Drug Administration granted Eli Lilly approval for Onswik, a once-weekly basal insulin — exactly six months after the corresponding green light for Novo Nordisk. The Danes' head start in key segments is narrowing, making patient-friendly delivery formats the decisive lever for future margin stability.

Clinical Wins and Two EMA Nods

Novo Nordisk's pipeline has produced encouraging data of late. In the Phase 3 REIMAGINE 5 trial, the candidate CagriSema drove 12.4% weight loss at 60 weeks in patients with type 2 diabetes, beating the rival treatment tirzepatide, which managed 9.1%. On HbA1c reduction, the combination of cagrilintide and semaglutide proved non-inferior. The obesity study REDEFINE 9 added further support, with participants shedding 21% of their body weight after 68 weeks versus placebo. A US FDA decision is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Regulators in Europe have also weighed in. The European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use recommended approval of FREHEMGO on 17 September for the preventive treatment of haemophilia A in adults and children, with a European launch planned from the fourth quarter of 2026. A day later, the same committee backed Sogroya for children with idiopathic short stature — a first for the EU indication, should the European Commission grant clearance. Both steps support CEO Mike Doustdar's plan to broaden the portfolio beyond existing GLP-1 products.

Ambitious Targets, Sober Analysts

Management used a recent investor update to sketch out its longer-term ambitions: more than five medicines with multi-blockbuster potential in the pipeline by 2030, and pipeline revenue exceeding USD 23 billion by 2035. Partnerships are advancing too. On Wednesday, Novo Nordisk paid United Laboratories a USD 9 million milestone for the UBT251 injection after a global Phase 2 milestone in type 2 diabetes was reached.

A re-rating could also come from the capital markets side. Doustdar told the Financial Times the group is weighing a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange in place of its current American Depositary Receipts. With the US accounting for more than half of sales, a full US listing could visibly lift demand from American institutional investors.

Not everyone is convinced the near-term picture improves. Nordnet analyst Per Hansen tempered expectations around the Nanexa agreement, calling it strategically relevant but unlikely to serve as a major share price catalyst in the short run. Early-stage research collaborations carry substantial development risk, and commercial success is far from assured.

Growth Gap Meets Patent Cliff

The company also faces a projected dip at group level. For the current 2026 financial year, revenue is forecast to decline by roughly 3%, with net profit down 4%. Should approval processes stall or rivals such as Eli Lilly continue to capture share, the compression in valuation multiples could persist. The stock sits 38% below its 52-week high of EUR 54.86 — a measure of how much scepticism has built up.

That scepticism is visible in the share price itself. The stock closed yesterday at EUR 33.94 and trades at EUR 33.95, down 23% since the start of the year. Long-term patent risk weighs on the valuation, with analysts pointing to muted medium-term growth and the expiry of patents on the revenue driver semaglutide after 2030. Buybacks offer some support: as of 18 September, Novo Nordisk had repurchased its own B shares for more than DKK 9.6 billion since February.

As long as support near the 52-week low holds, the depressed valuation offers a base for stabilisation. Delays in the new clinical programmes, or an unexpected squeeze on US margins, could see the shares break lower. The coming quarters will be decisive — above all, the Phase 2 and Phase 3 readouts that will show whether Novo Nordisk can genuinely deliver on its promise of more than USD 23 billion in fresh pipeline revenue by 2035.