Novo Nordisk Analysts Split on Price Targets as India Launch and CagriSema Data Offer Separate Tests

Two opposing price-target revisions have left Novo Nordisk without a clear analyst consensus, even as the Danish drugmaker advances its buyback programme and lays out a potential commercial opening in India.

Oddo BHF raised its target to DKK 305 from DKK 221 on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg News, while keeping its rating at "Neutral." That move came two days after HSBC trimmed its own target to DKK 280 from DKK 320 on Monday, media reports said, reaffirming a "Hold." Neither house attached a buy recommendation to its revaluation, and neither report disclosed the reasoning behind the adjustments. The upshot: targets moved in opposite directions, yet both firms landed on the same wait-and-see stance.

India Sets a Timeline, With Strings Attached

On the commercial side, Novo Nordisk sees room to grow in India's GLP-1 market. Vikrant Shrotriya, the company's India managing director, said on 15 October that oral semaglutide for obesity could reach the market there by mid-2027 — provided regulators grant approval. Applications for a higher-dose semaglutide and for the oral obesity formulation were under review, according to media reports, which also cited Shrotriya's expectation of 15–20% annual growth for India's GLP-1 market.

Those figures describe a market forecast, not a revenue projection for Novo Nordisk, and the mid-2027 date is no confirmed launch. A growing overall market guarantees neither approval nor any particular commercial outcome for the company.

CagriSema's Detail Data Cut Both Ways

Fresh clinical context arrived alongside the India outlook. Novo Nordisk presented post-hoc analyses of its Phase 3 REDEFINE 1 trial at the annual meeting of the Menopause Society, showing that women on CagriSema lost an average 25.0% of body weight after 68 weeks, against 3.0% on placebo. The analysis covered 2,309 women.

Broken down by menopausal status, the average loss was 26.7% for premenopausal women, 24.8% during the transition and 23.1% after menopause. Because these figures cover distinct participant groups, they do not represent a single uniform treatment effect. Novo Nordisk itself labelled the exploratory analyses as hypothesis-generating — a pointer for further research rather than a new confirmatory result. In the full study, average weight loss was 22.7%, short of the 25% goal; the more favourable female subgroup does not alter that finding. CagriSema remains an investigational drug.

Buyback Rolls On Toward November Update

Meanwhile, the share repurchase programme continues. Cumulative buybacks reached DKK 10,875,024,304 as of Friday, the company said Monday, against a programme framework of DKK 15 billion. The next scheduled checkpoint is 4 November 2026, when Novo Nordisk reports financial results for the first nine months of 2026.

Until then, investors are left weighing encouraging subgroup data and a prospective India launch against cautious analyst ratings — a combination that argues for a differentiated view rather than an all-clear.