Nokia's Insider Buying Spree and Southeast Asian AI Push Paint a Tale of Two Markets

Nokia expands AI data center footprint with NVIDIA and Indosat, while insider purchases and strong Q2 results contrast with muted share price.

The disconnect between Nokia's operational momentum and its share price has rarely been starker. While the Finnish telecom equipment maker deepens its artificial intelligence infrastructure footprint in Southeast Asia and its own executives buy stock with personal money, the market response remains muted — a divergence that leaves investors parsing mixed signals.

Nokia's most ambitious move yet came Thursday, when it joined forces with NVIDIA and Indonesian carrier Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison on a joint infrastructure venture. The partnership, spearheaded by major shareholder Ooredoo Group, aims to build up to one gigawatt of AI computing capacity under the "Zankore" platform. Nokia will supply the network infrastructure, with the first phase targeting around 200 megawatts of capacity in the first half of 2027, powered by NVIDIA's new GB300-NVL72 systems.

The project underscores how far Nokia has come in repositioning itself as a network equipment provider for AI data centers. Its AI & Cloud segment more than doubled revenue year-over-year in the second quarter, results the company published roughly two weeks ago. Order intake in that division reached €2.8 billion — a scale that helped lift the group's operating margin guidance. Group net sales grew 9 percent on a currency-adjusted basis, with gross margin climbing to 46 percent.

Executives Put Their Money Where Their Mouth Is

Against that backdrop, a notable pattern emerged in late July: multiple Nokia executives bought shares with their own funds. Senior manager Patrik Hammarén acquired 43,293 shares at a volume-weighted average price of €8.4420 on the XHEL trading venue. Board member Timo Ihamuotila purchased more than 40,000 shares across several venues at prices between €8.44 and €8.46. Days later, Kristen Pressner and Mikko Hautala followed suit, buying at €7.8402 per share. The clustering of insider purchases within a short window suggests parts of management view the post-earnings dip as an attractive entry point.

On Friday, Nokia also transferred 957,142 treasury shares free of charge to participants in its share-based compensation programs. The company retains 87,626,482 own shares after the transfer. Such moves are routine under Nokia's employee participation scheme and don't involve fresh capital, but they underscore the company's continued commitment to equity-based remuneration.

Analysts Split on Valuation

Wall Street's reaction to Nokia's earnings and strategic news has been anything but uniform. Deutsche Bank cut its price target on July 27 from €13.50 to €11.50 while reaffirming a Buy rating. Bank of America struck a notably more bullish tone, raising its target to $18.50 as early as July 23. The latter argued that the billion-euro order intake in the AI business "clearly" exceeded market expectations, and that the absence of an upgraded full-year operating forecast shouldn't be read as a warning — much of the order book won't ship until 2027 and partly 2028, constrained by industry-wide capacity bottlenecks. Other houses positioned themselves between Hold and Buy.

The stock itself has been a study in frustration for bulls. Since the quarterly results roughly two weeks ago, the shares have given back 5.3 percent. A dividend declaration of €0.04 per share did little to stem the decline, though an S&P credit rating upgrade about a week ago triggered a 2.3 percent bounce. On Friday, the stock closed at €8.15, down 1.09 percent on the day. That leaves the shares just above their 200-day moving average — a sign the longer-term uptrend remains intact despite recent weakness — but below the 50-day average.

The Accounting Question Behind the Guidance

Part of the muted reaction traces back to management's own explanation: the raised 2026 profit forecast stems primarily from a reclassification, not an operational upgrade. The Fixed Wireless Access CPE and Enterprise Campus Edge divisions have been designated as discontinued operations, leaving the current-year outlook operationally unchanged. For the third quarter, Nokia guides for 3 to 7 percent sequential revenue growth, while operating profit should remain broadly flat due to phasing effects in the software business. Management is effectively pushing larger earnings improvements into the fourth quarter.

The share price remains 45.56 percent below its 52-week high of €14.97, set on June 3, though it's still up 45.80 percent year-to-date. With 30-day volatility hovering near 70 percent, the market is clearly still wrestling with how to value Nokia's AI strategy over the long term. The insider buying offers one signal; the analyst divergences offer another. For now, investors are left to weigh a management team that's voting with its wallet against a market that's still making up its mind.