Nel ASA: When a 224% Order Surge Isn't Enough to Move the Needle
Published on 08/06/2026 at 05:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The disconnect between what Nel ASA is selling and what it is actually earning has never been wider. Norway's hydrogen equipment maker booked a 224% jump in order intake during the second quarter, yet revenue contracted and the balance sheet keeps shrinking. That contradiction is precisely why JPMorgan just trimmed its price target on the stock to NOK 1.80 from NOK 2.90, while maintaining a "Hold" rating.
The bank's analyst Patrick Jones pointed to the latest quarterly report as the catalyst for the cut. His move came just a day after Jefferies reaffirmed its own "Neutral" stance, flagging the same structural gap between a swelling order book and sluggish revenue recognition. Both houses now describe an industry where demand is clearly building—but where converting that demand into actual income is taking far longer than investors had hoped.
The Numbers Tell a Tale of Two Businesses
Nel's second-quarter results, published on 15 July, laid the problem bare. Revenue from customer contracts fell 12% year-on-year to NOK 153 million, down from NOK 174 million in the same period of 2025. EBITDA landed at minus NOK 155 million, dragged down in part by a one-off legal settlement. Yet order intake surged to NOK 230 million, with PEM electrolysers accounting for 96% of new bookings. The company's total order backlog stood at NOK 1.213 billion at the end of the quarter.
The cash position tells its own story: reserves dwindled from NOK 1.928 billion to NOK 1.328 billion over the course of a year. That burn rate reflects both operational losses and the cost of resolving a legal dispute with Iwatani Corporation of America over tank equipment. Nel settled the case in early June for USD 7.5 million, roughly NOK 70 million.
Adding to the turbulence, CEO Håkon Volldal announced his resignation in June to take a position at Elopak. He remains in place during a six-month notice period while the board searches for a successor, leaving the leadership question unresolved for now.
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A New Platform, A New Cost Structure
Management isn't standing still. The company has been restructuring since the spin-off of Cavendish Hydrogen, and confirmed on a 30 July conference call that headcount has been cut from 430 to 313. Meanwhile, the new "PA-Series" platform for pressurised alkaline electrolysers—unveiled in May—is being positioned as a game-changer on cost. Nel says it can deliver turnkey costs below USD 1,450 per kilowatt for 25-megawatt installations, a fraction of the roughly USD 3,000 per kilowatt industry standard.
Production targets are equally ambitious: 500 megawatts of capacity at the Herøya site by the end of 2026, scaling to 1 gigawatt in 2027. The company is betting that a hydrogen infrastructure build-out in Europe will eventually translate into electrolyser orders. There are early signs of that demand taking shape—German transmission system operators reported on Wednesday that bookings for the planned cross-border hydrogen pipeline network have nearly doubled to almost 6 gigawatts since mid-May.
Brussels Could Provide the Next Catalyst
Investors are also watching Brussels closely. The EU Commission is expected to announce results from its HORIZON-JU-CLEANH2-2026 funding programme in early August, for which 170 green hydrogen production and storage projects have been submitted. Nel has already secured up to EUR 135 million from the EU Innovation Fund, and a further positive decision could provide short-term momentum for the shares.
The company has also said it will stop formally collecting and publishing analyst estimates, citing a decline in the number of participating analysts—an unusual move that underscores the thinning coverage of European hydrogen stocks.
Market Position and What Comes Next
The share price reflects the mixed picture. Nel closed Wednesday at EUR 0.1978, down 4.90% over 30 days and 45.88% below its 52-week high of EUR 0.3655, reached in May. The stock sits 13.46% above its 52-week low of EUR 0.1731 from 26 February, with a relative strength index of 40.6 pointing to neutral-to-weak sentiment. Market capitalisation stands at roughly EUR 359 million. Clearstream Banking holds 67.72% of registered shares and Samsung E&A owns 9.09%, according to a disclosure from early June.
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All eyes now turn to 21 October, when Nel publishes its third-quarter interim report. That will be the first real test of whether the second quarter's order surge is beginning to show up in actual revenue—the exact transition that JPMorgan and Jefferies both identify as the pivotal uncertainty. Until then, the company remains a story of promise in search of proof.
