Nel ASA Sits in Limbo as Investors Mark Time Until the October Scorecard

Nel ASA shares hover near lows amid revenue drop, CEO exit, and EU grant; Q3 report on Oct 21 is key catalyst.

The quiet around Nel ASA has become its own kind of news. More than a month has passed since the Norwegian hydrogen specialist saw its chief executive step down and launched commercial sales of its new electrolyser line — yet the company has released nothing since to give the market fresh direction. No orders, no strategic updates, no new figures have emerged since mid-August, leaving the stock to drift in a narrow band near its lows.

The Second-Quarter Ledger Still Sets the Tone

With the news vacuum stretching on, investors have little choice but to keep poring over the numbers delivered in July. Revenue from customer contracts fell 12 percent to 153 million Norwegian kroner in the second quarter, while total revenue dropped from 215 million to 182 million kroner. The EBITDA line remained deep in negative territory at minus 155 million kroner.

One bright spot stood out: order intake climbed to 230 million kroner, a sign that demand for the company's electrolysers has not dried up even as revenue contracts. That momentum was reinforced by a payment from the European Union — 118 million kroner in the quarter from an EU grant supporting the commercialisation of the new pressurised alkaline electrolyser. Such subsidy money bolsters liquidity, though it does not replace recurring revenue, a distinction that matters for a company whose top line is shrinking.

A Stock Stuck Between Support and Resistance

The market's response to all this has been a study in patience. The stock closed Friday at EUR 0.1934, down 0.6 percent on the day. Over the past seven sessions it has slipped 1.0 percent, leaving the shares hovering close to their 52-week low and well below the May peak. The market capitalisation stands at roughly EUR 357 million — a figure that captures how far investor enthusiasm has cooled since the disappointing revenue numbers.

That puts the share roughly 47 percent beneath its 52-week high from 25 May, while sitting just 12 percent above the February trough. In other words, the stock is far closer to its floor than to its former heights — a positioning that underscores how little of the company's operational progress on product development and capacity expansion has translated into share-price recovery.

The recent trading pattern has been uneven. On 25 August, the shares rose 3.16 percent to NOK 2.13, outperforming the Oslo OBX index, which simultaneously marked a three-month high. But that gain proved fleeting: between 19 and 26 August, the stock lost roughly 27 percent, driven in part by a technical selling impulse and a single session with a double-digit decline. Automated analysis programmes subsequently flagged the shares as a sell candidate with a negative technical score on 26 August — an assessment that carries limited weight given the volatility, but reflects the chart's damaged state.

The CEO Exit Still Casts a Shadow

The departure of chief executive Håkon Volldal, now more than a month old, continues to hang over the stock. Since his resignation, the shares have lost around 19.1 percent. The July quarterly figures — which showed sustained momentum in PEM electrolyser sales alongside challenges in the alkaline segment — have also weighed on the price, contributing a further 3.3 percent decline in the weeks since their release. Together, these events form the backdrop against which the company's technological advances must now prove themselves.

A Bigger Backdrop of Ambition

For all the near-term gloom, Nel is not standing still. The company is pushing ahead with capacity expansion at its Herøya site in Norway, targeting annual production of one gigawatt, with ambitions to grow that to four gigawatts per year by 2030. That roadmap signals a company choosing scale over consolidation despite the difficult market conditions.

The EU's support extends beyond the quarterly payment: the commercialisation project for the new pressurised alkaline electrolyser line, launched in May, carries a total grant of EUR 135 million from the bloc's Innovation Fund. For a company with a market capitalisation in the region of EUR 361 million at recent prices, that subsidy represents a meaningful vote of confidence in the technology.

Analysts at IG, in a note dated 20 August, counted Nel among the world's most important hydrogen stocks, pointing to its vertical integration across alkaline and PEM electrolyser stacks as well as hydrogen infrastructure — a differentiator that few competitors can match.

All Eyes on 21 October

The next real test arrives on 21 October, when Nel publishes its third-quarter report. That date will reveal whether the Herøya production ramp-up and the new electrolyser platform are translating into order intake and revenue — and whether the EU's substantial funding can mark a genuine turning point for a company under pressure.

Until then, the stock looks set to remain in a holding pattern. With no fresh catalysts on the horizon, the combination of falling revenue, persistent EBITDA losses and an order book that is growing but not yet sufficient leaves the October report as the single most important event for determining the share's next direction. Barring surprise orders or capital measures in the interim, the news flow is unlikely to change much before then.