Nel ASA's Waiting Game: A CEO Exit, a Legal Settlement, and an Order Book That Tells a Different Story

Nel ASA's orders jump 224% to 230M kroner, but shares fall 47% from May peak amid CEO exit and legal settlement. Can the backlog offset the bearish narrative?

The Norwegian hydrogen specialist is caught in an unusual holding pattern. While its share price drifts near recent lows and investors digest a leadership departure, the company's order intake has just posted its most dramatic jump in recent memory. The question hanging over Nel ASA is which of these two narratives will ultimately define the next chapter.

Shares closed the week at 0.1954 euros, down 3.5 percent, leaving the stock roughly 47 percent below its May peak of 0.3655 euros. The equity now trades 8.7 percent beneath its 200-day moving average of 0.2141 euros — a technical picture that reflects months of accumulated caution rather than any single fresh catalyst.

A Departure With a Destination

The leadership question, at least, has gained some clarity. In mid-August, packaging group Elopak confirmed that Håkon Volldal will become its new chief executive, with his start date set for no later than January 1, 2027. Volldal first announced his exit from Nel in June and remains in post during a six-month notice period while the board searches for a successor.

Board chairman Arvid Moss has sought to steady nerves, insisting the company's long-term strategy remains intact and that manufacturing and technology targets are unchanged throughout the transition. Still, the parallel tracks of a CEO search and a demanding operational environment have done little to reassure shareholders already rattled by a JPMorgan price-target cut and the fallout from a legal dispute.

The Iwatani Settlement and Its Ripple Effects

That legal overhang traces back to Nel's second-quarter results, which included a 70 million Norwegian kroner settlement payment to Iwatani Corporation of America. Strip that out, and the underlying operating picture looks considerably weaker than the headline numbers suggest.

Customer contract revenue came in at 153 million kroner for the quarter, down 12 percent year on year. Total revenue, including other income, reached 182 million kroner against 215 million kroner in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA held steady only because the settlement was excluded — without that adjustment, the quarter would have shown a marked deterioration. The bottom line tells a starker story: an EBITDA loss of 155 million kroner.

Where the Growth Actually Is

Yet the order book offers a counterpoint. Incoming orders surged 224 percent to 230 million kroner during the quarter, lifting the backlog to 1.21 billion kroner by period-end. That momentum is tied to the company's new PA-Series electrolyzer platform, designed to make large-scale hydrogen projects cheaper and more efficient. At its Herøya facility, Nel aims to reach an annual capacity of 500 megawatts by the end of 2026, with further expansion planned the following year.

The company also carries a cash position of 1.33 billion kroner and is effectively debt-free — a buffer that provides room to execute on existing projects while the leadership transition plays out.

A Market Waiting for Proof

For now, the stock appears to be consolidating after absorbing a dense run of news, with no obvious near-term trigger on the horizon. The 46 percent gap from the 52-week high underscores how much confidence has eroded since the spring. Investors are left weighing whether the order intake marks a genuine inflection point or whether the revenue decline better reflects the structural headwinds facing the hydrogen sector, where several major energy companies have recently postponed projects.

The next scheduled reality check comes in October with third-quarter figures, which will show whether the order book surge is finally translating into reported revenue. Until then, and until a new chief executive is named, Nel looks set to remain a stock in search of its next catalyst.