Nel ASA's Two-Speed Story: Order Books Accelerate While the Income Statement Stalls
Published on 08/11/2026 at 03:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Investors in Nel ASA are being asked to hold two contradictory thoughts at once. The Norwegian hydrogen specialist just posted one of its most dramatic order-intake surges on record, yet the revenue line keeps heading in the opposite direction — and the market's biggest broker just slashed its price target by nearly 40 percent.
The disconnect was laid bare in the company's second-quarter 2026 report. Contract revenue came in at NOK 153 million, down 12 percent year over year, while order intake exploded 224 percent higher to NOK 230 million. The backlog now stands at NOK 1.213 billion. But none of that forward-looking strength prevented an EBITDA loss of NOK 155 million for the quarter, against total revenue of NOK 182 million.
A Broker's Reality Check
JPMorgan responded on August 5 by cutting its price target to NOK 1.80 from NOK 2.90, maintaining a Neutral rating. The move captures the market's central dilemma: a swelling pipeline of future work that has yet to translate into the kind of revenue growth that would justify a more constructive stance.
The bank's caution is understandable given the trend line. This wasn't a one-off miss — the first quarter of 2026 already showed contract revenue slipping 5 percent to NOK 148 million. The gap between what customers are ordering and what Nel is actually billing has now widened for two consecutive quarters.
Leadership Shake-Up Adds Another Variable
Complicating the picture further, CEO Håkon Volldal is departing for Elopak, leaving the company to navigate an already demanding operational stretch without its top executive. Leadership transitions rarely arrive at convenient moments, and this one lands squarely in the middle of a period when investors are looking for clarity on whether the order boom has genuine substance.
There are, to be fair, some encouraging signals buried in the quarter. A $7 million PEM equipment order destined for the United States suggests the PEM division is building momentum even as overall revenue contracts. The order surge itself was driven primarily by PEM, with the company's new pressurized alkaline series — launched in May — also contributing to the stronger inflow.
The Bull Case: A Platform Worth Waiting For
Optimists point to two structural developments that could eventually close the gap between orders and revenue. The first is the pressurized alkaline platform itself, which management has positioned as a potential industry standard. Product launches typically generate an initial spike in orders before the revenue recognition catches up — the question is how long that lag lasts.
The second is the licensing agreement with Reliance Industries. Under that deal, the Indian conglomerate can manufacture alkaline electrolyzers at scale, with Nel receiving revenue from the Indian market and gaining access to equipment for its own projects. If executed well, this model could deliver economies of scale without requiring Nel to pour capital into its own manufacturing capacity.
The Bear Case: A Pattern That Keeps Repeating
The bearish argument is simpler: the company has now posted multiple quarters of negative EBITDA alongside declining contract revenue, and there's no guarantee the order surge is anything more than a launch-related blip. JPMorgan's target cut suggests the bank sees little reason to believe the operational weakness is about to resolve itself quickly.
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The technical picture reinforces that skepticism. The shares trade roughly 8.88 percent below their 50-day moving average, indicating the short-term trend has been softening rather than stabilizing. At the current price of around NOK 0.1990, the stock sits approximately 45.55 percent below its 52-week high of NOK 0.3655, reached in May.
What Would Change the Narrative
The next meaningful test comes with the third-quarter 2026 report. If that print shows the alkaline orders converting into actual billings — and the Reliance license contributing its first revenue — the valuation case could shift quickly. If not, the current pattern of order-book enthusiasm failing to reach the income statement will likely persist, keeping the shares range-bound and analyst skepticism intact.
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Management maintains that liquidity remains sufficient to fund ongoing operations and technology development, including the costs associated with the Iwatani dispute that has weighed on recent results. For now, the market seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach — Monday's close of EUR 0.1992 left the stock up a modest 0.91 percent on the week, hardly the reaction of a market convinced that either the bull or bear case has won the argument.
