Nel ASA's Slide Deepens as Hydrogen Sector Awaits Its Next Catalyst

Nel ASA shares slide 6.7% in seven days to €0.1932, pressured by J.P. Morgan's price target cut and weak Q2 results despite strong order intake.

Seven trading days have not been kind to Nel ASA. The Norwegian hydrogen specialist's shares now change hands at €0.1932, a 6.7 percent retreat over the period that leaves the stock trading just beneath Tuesday's closing level of €0.1934. The persistent erosion comes despite a backdrop that, on paper at least, contains some encouraging operational signals.

The market's mood has been shaped in large part by a single analyst action. On August 5, J.P. Morgan trimmed its price target on the Oslo-listed stock from NOK 2.90 to NOK 1.80, lopping nearly a third off the previous figure while keeping a Neutral rating in place. That call — the only clearly dated analyst move in a fortnight — has done much to cement the cautious tone surrounding the equity, particularly as no fresh corporate announcements, contract wins, or regulatory decisions have emerged to counterbalance it.

A Quarter That Raised More Questions Than Answers

Investors continue to lean on the second-quarter report from mid-July as the reference point for the company's trajectory, and the numbers there were decidedly mixed. Order intake jumped 224 percent to NOK 230 million, a headline figure that speaks to growing customer engagement. Yet revenue slipped 12 percent to NOK 153 million over the same stretch, while EBITDA landed at minus NOK 155 million — a shortfall compounded by a NOK 70 million settlement payment to Japanese partner Iwatani.

The quarterly release also carried the announcement that CEO Håkon Volldal would step down, though he remains in post until the end of 2026. That leadership transition, together with the financial results, has left the investment community with plenty to digest and little in the way of fresh news flow to shift the narrative.

Structural Headwinds Trump Operational Gains

What makes the current slide notable is that it is unfolding even as the company's backlog stands at a healthy NOK 1.2 billion and expansion plans at Herøya proceed. The problem, as recent financial commentary has stressed, lies less with Nel's own execution and more with the broader investment climate for hydrogen. Major energy companies have postponed hydrogen projects in recent weeks, a trend that ripples through to equipment makers like Nel even when their order books remain intact.

The share price now sits roughly 6.5 percent below its 50-day moving average of €0.2067, a technical signal that the near-term downtrend retains momentum. The distance from the spring's 52-week high is even more striking: the stock has shed 47 percent from that peak, though it continues to trade above its yearly low.

Waiting on the Next Signal

For now, the constellation of factors weighing on Nel — the analyst downgrade, deferred customer projects, the leadership change, and unresolved questions around EU funding decisions — is well known to the market. None of it is new, and none of it provides a fresh reason to reassess the stock. The company's growth narrative, anchored in rising order intake and capacity expansion, is increasingly being overshadowed by the sector's broader investment paralysis.

Absent a new contract announcement, a capacity decision, or a regulatory development, the debate around Nel ASA looks set to remain where it has been for weeks: a standoff between the bears pointing to sector-wide caution and the bulls banking on a backlog that has yet to translate into revenue momentum. For shareholders, the immediate horizon offers little beyond patience — and a close watch on the next corporate update.