Nel ASA's Rheinmetall MoU and a $12 Million US Order Sit Alongside a NOK 141 Million Quarterly Loss

Nel ASA has given investors two fresh reasons for optimism this week, but neither arrives with a guarantee attached. A memorandum of understanding with Rheinmetall and a new US electrolyser order add project momentum, while the Norwegian hydrogen group's third-quarter 2026 figures lay bare how far actual revenue has fallen behind the order pipeline.

The agreement signed on Tuesday with Rheinmetall is explicitly non-binding. Under the arrangement, Nel's electrolyser technology would be paired with Rheinmetall's Giga-PtX concept to explore decentralised production of renewable synthetic fuels, with defence and critical infrastructure named as potential fields of use. Both partners intend to first examine technical and economic feasibility, and any pilot projects depend on further reviews and a joint decision. The document therefore signals interest in cooperation rather than a commitment to build plants — a distinction that matters when weighing Nel's prospects. A possible new application for the technology carries different weight than a firm customer order.

A Concrete Order, With Delivery Set for 2027

Harder evidence of booked business came from subsidiary Nel Hydrogen US, which on Tuesday secured an order worth roughly USD 12 million from an unnamed global technology company headquartered in the United States. The contract covers several containerised PEM electrolysers along with related services, with delivery expected in 2027.

That win sits alongside a far larger order picture. Order intake climbed 339% to NOK 253 million, while the backlog reached NOK 1,314 million — 34% above the year-earlier level. On the demand side, the trend is unambiguous.

Revenue tells the opposite story. Sales from customer contracts fell 63% year on year to NOK 112 million in the third quarter of 2026. Measured across total revenue, the quarter came in at NOK 138.12 million, a decline of 60.4%. Nel also reported a net loss of NOK 141 million, equal to a loss per share of NOK 0.08.

The Gap Investors Must Price

Those two sets of numbers describe different stages of the same business, and the distance between them is where the investment case now rests. Additional orders can form the basis of a recovery, but until they convert into higher revenue, that recovery remains an expectation rather than a demonstrated fact. The backlog quantifies available order volume; it proves neither prompt execution nor an improved result.

The bull case hinges on execution. Should Nel turn its larger order cushion into sales, the focus could shift from present weakness toward operational stabilisation — and it would carry more conviction if order intake and revenue began to pull in the same direction. A single better reading would not be enough. The quarter's steep revenue drop could then look in hindsight like an interim phase rather than the start of a lasting deterioration. Even so, that is a possible path, not a turn already confirmed by the order figures.

Earnings quality would need to support that path as well. Higher revenue would be an important step but not sufficient proof of economic success. The optimistic argument gains particular force if rising sales arrive alongside a smaller loss burden.

What Would Change the Picture

The loss is the main counterweight to hopes of a rebound. Even if additional orders eventually generate revenue, a corresponding improvement in earnings is not automatic. The pessimistic scenario is not simply one of delayed execution — rising sales without meaningful relief on losses would also cap the bullish reading. A particularly difficult outcome would be a backlog that keeps generating hope while the revenue base stays weak, pushing the expected benefit of those orders further into the future and forcing investors to value the company on an improvement that has yet to appear.

The next operational catalyst, then, would be solid proof that Nel is converting orders into growing revenue, with added credibility if losses shrink at the same time. Until that evidence arrives, shareholders face a choice between trusting the order potential and demanding confirmed earnings progress. The order numbers open a perspective; the business itself will have to carry it.