Nel ASA's Pivot From Megaprojects to Modular Machines Faces Its First Big Test
Published on 08/05/2026 at 06:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The hydrogen economy's grand ambitions are shrinking down to industrial scale, and Norway's Nel ASA is scrambling to adapt before the window of opportunity closes.
The Oslo-based electrolyser maker has spent much of 2026 repositioning itself after the retreat of Big Oil from green hydrogen. BP's decision to shelve or delay multiple projects sent ripples through the entire sector in early August, underscoring how quickly the economics of massive hydrogen bets have soured. For suppliers like Nel, that means the pipeline of marquee contracts has thinned considerably — and the company has been forced to rethink where its next paydays will come from.
The answer, increasingly, lies with smaller specialised partners rather than energy supermajors. Nel has been deepening ties with A.H.T. Syngas and its long-time collaborator H2 Energy, which confirmed firm orders late in 2025 for expanding Switzerland's hydrogen infrastructure. These decentralised, industrial-scale installations are now expected to provide the revenue stability that speculative megaprojects once promised.
A Share Price Caught Between Consolidation and Concern
The market's verdict on Nel's transition has been mixed at best. The stock closed Tuesday at EUR 0.1982, roughly 46 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 0.3655 reached in May. The relative strength index sits at 42, pointing to a consolidation phase without a clear directional bias — though the secondary reading of 39.3 on the 14-day RSI suggests the shares are creeping toward oversold territory.
The technical picture is hardly flattering. Nel trades below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the February low of EUR 0.1731 looms as the next critical support level. On a monthly basis, the stock has shed 8.38 percent, with the gap to its yearly peak now standing at 46.48 percent.
The PA-Series Gambit
Management's counterpunch is the PA-Series, a pressurised alkaline platform launched in the second quarter of 2026. The company claims the new architecture can deliver turnkey costs below USD 1,450 per kilowatt for 25-megawatt installations — roughly half the industry norm of around USD 3,000 per kilowatt for comparable systems. The design also promises up to 80 percent less space utilisation, a selling point aimed squarely at industrial customers who want to decarbonise without waiting for the energy giants to return.
The strategy is straightforward: win over manufacturers and industrial operators who are proceeding with their own emissions-reduction timelines regardless of what the oil majors do. Nel frames the PA-Series as a cost leadership play, one that could cut customer investment costs by 40 to 60 percent.
Orders Surge, Losses Persist
The commercial traction is real, even if the bottom line remains stubbornly red. Second-quarter 2026 figures show order intake jumping 224 percent to NOK 230 million, while the order backlog swelled to NOK 1.213 billion. Yet the company still posted an EBITDA loss of NOK 155 million, a shortfall exacerbated by a roughly NOK 70 million charge related to a settlement with Iwatani Corporation of America, announced on 7 June 2026.
Nel's balance sheet, however, offers some breathing room. Cash reserves stand at approximately NOK 1.328 billion, a cushion intended to finance the transition to a pure-play electrolyser business following the June 2024 spin-off of its hydrogen refuelling arm, now listed independently as Cavendish Hydrogen.
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Leadership Vacancy Adds Uncertainty
The strategic pivot is unfolding without a permanent captain at the helm. CEO Håkon Volldal, who took the reins in July 2022 and steered Nel toward its electrolyser focus, announced his departure on 15 June 2026. He is leaving to head packaging group Elopak and will serve out his six-month notice period, remaining in post until roughly the end of the year. Chairman Arvid Moss insists the strategic direction will not change, but investors are left waiting on a successor — a vacuum that compounds the sector-wide headwinds.
Brussels Could Tip the Scales
All eyes are now on Brussels. The EU is expected to announce results from its HORIZON-JU-CLEANH2-2026 funding programme in early August, with 170 green hydrogen production and storage projects vying for support. A successful bid involving Nel's technology or one of its partners could translate into fresh orders and, perhaps, a much-needed shift in sentiment.
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The coming months will test whether Nel's smaller-scale, cost-focused strategy can compensate for the evaporation of big-energy enthusiasm. With a CEO appointment due by year-end and the PA-Series needing to convert pipeline interest into booked revenue, the company is running two races at once — both against a sector that is losing favour with investors by the week.
