Nel ASA's Order Book Surges 224% — But the Balance Sheet Tells a Different Story

Nel ASA's Q2 2026 shows revenue down 12%, but order intake up 224%. Cash reserves shrink, analyst consensus is Hold, and CEO search adds uncertainty.

The Norwegian hydrogen equipment maker finds itself in an unusual position: commercial momentum that analysts would normally celebrate, paired with financial deterioration that keeps eroding investor confidence. Nel ASA's second-quarter 2026 results, published on 15 July, capture this tension in stark relief.

Revenue from customer contracts fell 12 percent year-on-year to 153 million Norwegian kroner, down from 174 million kroner in the prior-year period. The company's total revenue, including other income, came to 182 million kroner against 215 million kroner a year earlier. The EBITDA figure landed at minus 155 million kroner, weighed down in part by a one-off settlement payment of 70 million kroner related to the previously disclosed legal dispute with Iwatani Corporation of America — an agreement the company finalised in early June.

The Order Book Tells a Different Story

Where the income statement disappoints, the pipeline offers a counter-narrative. Order intake jumped 224 percent year-on-year to 230 million kroner in the second quarter, driven almost exclusively by demand for PEM electrolysers, which now account for 96 percent of new orders. The total order backlog reached 1.213 billion kroner by the end of the quarter.

That divergence — falling revenue, surging order intake — is shaping up to be the central point of scrutiny for analysts and shareholders over the coming quarters. The question hanging over the stock is whether this commercial traction can eventually translate into profitability, or whether the company's cash position will force difficult decisions first.

Cash reserves have thinned considerably. Nel held 1.328 billion kroner at the end of the second quarter, down from 1.928 billion kroner in the same period last year. With operations still loss-making — the net loss for the quarter stood at 189 million kroner — the shrinking liquidity cushion is likely to keep the financing debate alive.

Analyst Skepticism and a Leadership Vacuum

The market's wariness is reflected in the analyst community. At the time of the quarterly report, 21 analysts covered the stock with a consensus rating of "Hold": eleven rated it Hold, six said Strong Sell, and five said Sell. Notably, not a single house issued a Buy recommendation.

The leadership transition adds another layer of uncertainty. Håkon Volldal stepped down as president and CEO in mid-June to pursue other opportunities, and the board is searching for a successor while he serves out his six-month notice period. One small vote of confidence came in April, when board chair Arvid Moss purchased 100,000 shares at an average price of 2.2547 kroner — his first reported insider buy.

JPMorgan analyst Patrick Jones trimmed his price target for the stock on Wednesday, though the specific new figure was not disclosed. The adjustment comes amid a period of softer revenues and ongoing strategic repositioning.

A New Platform and a Cost-Cutting Drive

Nel has been streamlining its cost base following the spin-off of Cavendish Hydrogen. Management confirmed in a 30 July conference call that headcount had been reduced from 430 to 313 employees. In parallel, the company is pushing forward with its new "PA-Series" platform for pressurised alkaline electrolysers, unveiled in May. The stated goal is to achieve turnkey costs of under 1,450 US dollars per kilowatt for 25-megawatt installations — well below the industry standard of roughly 3,000 US dollars per kilowatt.

The platform received final board approval in December 2025 and is backed by up to 135 million euros from the EU Innovation Fund for the Herøya site. Management claims the new generation of electrolysers will cut system costs by 40 to 60 percent.

Eyes on Brussels

The next potential catalyst is political rather than commercial. The European Commission is expected to announce the results of its "HORIZON-JU-CLEANH2-2026" funding programme in early August, for which 170 projects in green hydrogen production and storage were submitted. Nel has already secured a commitment of up to 135 million euros from the EU Innovation Fund, and a positive decision could provide short-term momentum for the share price.

The stock continues to trade deep below its highs. On Wednesday, the shares changed hands at 0.1964 euros, down 0.91 percent on the day, having closed the previous session at 0.1978 euros after a 4.90 percent decline over the month. The gap to the 52-week high of 0.3655 euros, reached on 25 May, stands at roughly 46 percent, while the distance to the February low of 0.1731 euros offers a buffer of about 13 percent. The relative strength index sits at 40.6, pointing to neutral-to-weak sentiment without signalling an imminent reversal.

Nel has also said it will stop formally collecting and publishing analyst estimates, citing a decline in the number of participating analysts. The next quarterly figures, covering the third quarter of 2026, are scheduled for release on 21 October. Until then, the balance between a shrinking top line and a swelling order book remains the central test for the company — and for the patience of its shareholders.