Nel ASA's Order Book Jumps 34% as Losses Deepen and Rheinmetall Talks Stay Exploratory

Nel ASA closed the third quarter of 2026 with a sharply wider loss and a shrinking cash position, even as its order intake surged. The Norwegian hydrogen equipment maker reported an EBITDA of NOK -93 million for the period, compared with NOK -37 million a year earlier, while the net loss widened to NOK 140.68 million from NOK 84.7 million. Cash on hand fell to NOK 1,078 million from NOK 1,757 million at the same point last year.

The figures lay bare a gap that has come to define the company's investment case: demand is recovering faster than the business is converting it into revenue. Order intake climbed 339% year on year to NOK 253 million, and the order backlog stood at NOK 1,314 million at quarter-end, up 34%. Revenue from customer contracts, by contrast, slid 63% to NOK 111.65 million. Total income and revenue reached NOK 138.12 million.

PEM Carries the Load, Alkaline Drags

The split between Nel's two technology platforms explains much of the divergence. PEM accounted for 97% of order intake, and its revenue rose 65% to NOK 89 million. Alkaline moved in the opposite direction, with revenue collapsing 91% to NOK 23 million and an EBITDA of NOK -41 million.

Nel is testing a new pressurized alkaline technology and plans a production line at Herøya. Those efforts are separate from the reported results — testing and capacity plans do not yet amount to a commercial recovery in the segment. On a group level, PEM's gains were not enough to offset alkaline's weakness.

For shareholders, the distinction between a backlog and booked revenue matters. A larger order book opens the door to future sales but does not by itself deliver a margin. A further rise in orders would carry less weight if the economic execution lagged behind.

A Binding US Order, a Non-Binding Rheinmetall Review

Two announcements this week illustrate the range of Nel's pipeline. On Tuesday, Nel Hydrogen US disclosed an order from an unnamed global US technology company covering several containerized PEM electrolysers plus services, valued at roughly USD 12 million. Delivery is expected in 2027.

That contract gives the outlook a concrete anchor because it reflects a customer decision rather than an expression of intent. The positive scenario for Nel would gain credibility if such orders are executed while operating performance improves at the same time.

The same day, Nel signed a non-binding letter of intent with Rheinmetall. The two companies will examine decentralized production options for renewable synthetic fuels in Norway, combining Nel's electrolyser technology with Rheinmetall's Giga-PtX concept. Potential applications include defense and critical infrastructure. A successful review could lead to further steps, but the agreement is not a secured order. Technical and commercial feasibility still have to be assessed, and any pilot projects or next steps depend on that evaluation and on mutual agreement.

What Investors Are Really Watching

The decisive question is not whether Nel has new business opportunities — the orders and the cooperation provide evidence of that. It is whether those opportunities turn into economically meaningful business. The order backlog supplies the foundation; revenue and earnings must provide the confirmation.

A concrete timing marker is the 2027 delivery of the containerized PEM systems to the US technology customer. Progress on the Rheinmetall feasibility review could serve as another catalyst, though its significance would hinge on whether jointly agreed next steps emerge.

Should the backlog continue to underpin future business and execution advance, an operating recovery remains plausible. If only the order book improves while revenue and earnings stay weak, that scenario loses conviction. The stock's daily move of -5.8% reflects that tension: an improving order pipeline set against a still-deteriorating bottom line.