Nel ASA's Order Book Is Growing — So Why Is the Share Price Still Stuck in the Mud?

Nel ASA's order backlog surges 224% and EU grants €135M, but shares stay low amid CEO vacancy and cash burn.

The Norwegian hydrogen specialist Nel ASA finds itself in an unusual position: the fundamental story is improving, yet the market refuses to pay attention. New orders are flooding in, a fresh electrolyser platform promises dramatic cost savings, and Brussels has handed over a nine-figure grant — and still the shares hover near their lows.

On Friday, the stock traded at EUR 0.1934, roughly 4.1 percent below its 50-day moving average. That technical weakness tells only part of the story. The bigger picture is a company whose order intake surged 224 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026 to NOK 230 million, lifting the total backlog to NOK 1.2 billion. Growth, in other words, is not the problem.

The gap between bookings and billings

The challenge lies in the conversion. Quarterly revenue slipped 12 percent, and EBITDA came in at minus NOK 155 million, weighed down further by a NOK 70 million payment tied to a settlement with Iwatani Corporation of America that was finalised in June. The market is now asking a pointed question: can Nel turn its bulging order book into profitable sales, or will the long lead times on large-scale projects keep eating into cash reserves?

Management's answer is the new "PA-Series" platform, unveiled mid-month. The company claims the next-generation pressurised alkaline electrolyser can cut the cost of turnkey plants by as much as 60 percent while requiring significantly less floor space. The commercial rollout of this product line began back in May, and it has now been joined by a EUR 135 million grant from the EU Innovation Fund to expand production at the Herøya facility in Norway.

That site is slated to reach 500 megawatts of annual capacity by the end of 2026, doubling to one gigawatt in 2027. Longer term, the company has its sights set on four gigawatts per year by 2030. For a firm with a market capitalisation of roughly EUR 357 million, the EU subsidy represents a meaningful vote of confidence in the technology — and a clear signal that Nel is betting on scale rather than consolidation.

A leadership vacuum at the worst possible time

What the grant cannot fix is the uncertainty at the top. The departure of chief executive Håkon Volldal in June has left a strategic void that management itself admits has yet to fully dissipate. Since his exit, the shares have lost around 19.1 percent, and the July quarterly figures — which showed continued momentum in PEM electrolyser sales alongside struggles in the alkaline segment — have since shaved off another 3.3 percent.

The stock's trajectory tells a sobering tale. It sits roughly 47 percent below its 52-week high from May 25, while trading just 12 percent above its late-February low. A mid-August rally saw the shares climb 3.16 percent to NOK 2.13 on August 25, outperforming the Oslo OBX index as it touched a three-month high — but that bounce proved short-lived. Between August 19 and 26, the stock shed around 27 percent, triggered in part by a technical sell signal and a single session with a double-digit decline.

Automated screening tools have duly flagged the stock as a "Strong Sell Candidate," though such signals are more a reflection of momentum than fundamentals. Analysts at IG, for their part, still count Nel among the world's most important hydrogen names, pointing to its vertical integration across alkaline and PEM stacks as well as hydrogen infrastructure — a differentiator few competitors can match. A BCC Research report likewise lists the company as a key player in the sector, citing its alignment with the EU Green Deal and US production tax credits.

October is the moment of truth

For investors, the near-term catalyst is clear. Nel will publish its third-quarter results on October 21, and that report should reveal whether the Herøya ramp-up and the new electrolyser platform are translating into orders and revenue. The EU funding, the cost reductions, the growing backlog — all of it will be judged against the numbers that land that day.

Until then, the market seems content to sit on its hands. The technology is advancing, the order pipeline is filling, and Brussels has put real money on the table. But with the corner office still empty and cash burn continuing, Nel's shares are likely to keep drifting until management can prove that the gap between promise and performance is finally closing.