Nel ASA's Conversion Conundrum: Orders Are Up, But Revenue Tells a Different Tale
Published on 08/13/2026 at 03:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Norwegian hydrogen equipment maker finds itself in an unusual spot: its order intake has never looked healthier, yet the income statement keeps deteriorating. That divergence is now the central question for investors trying to gauge whether Nel ASA is on the cusp of a turnaround or simply experiencing a temporary reprieve.
Revenue from customer contracts slipped to 153.41 million kroner in the second quarter of 2026, an 11.79 percent decline year over year, while the net loss widened to 189 million kroner. The per-share loss landed at 0.10 kroner. Management has pointed to the cost advantages enjoyed by Chinese suppliers as a persistent headwind, one that continues to erode the company's competitive positioning in the green hydrogen space.
Yet the order book tells a more encouraging story. Total backlog stood at 1.213 billion kroner, just 3 percent below the prior-year figure of 1.25 billion kroner. More striking, order intake for the quarter surged 224 percent to 230 million kroner, with the PEM division contributing roughly 221 million kroner of that total. The company attributes much of this momentum to the new pressurized alkaline electrolyzer platform launched in May, which management says is already supporting activity levels.
That platform represents the clearest strategic bet for closing the cost gap. For a 25-megawatt installation, Nel projects total project costs could fall below $1,450 per kilowatt — a potential reduction of up to 60 percent compared with earlier projects. If the technology performs as advertised across the current project pipeline, it could meaningfully improve the company's standing against cheaper rivals in a market projected to reach $8.81 billion by 2036, growing at a compound annual rate of 24.2 percent.
The gap between orders and revenue is now the focal point for analysts. The 230 million kroner in new orders against a 153 million kroner quarterly revenue figure highlights the lag between booking and billing — a lag that will determine whether Nel can finally reverse its loss trajectory or remain stuck in a cycle of rising orders and falling revenue.
The green hydrogen segment remains the weakest link. Order intake there dropped 21 percent year over year, and delayed projects pushed the segment's quarterly EBIT to minus 65 million euros. That weakness, however, appears concentrated rather than systemic, given the relative stability of the overall backlog.
Wall Street has taken notice of the mixed signals. JPMorgan analyst Patrick Jones trimmed his price target on the stock in early August from $0.28 to $0.19 — roughly 1.80 kroner — while maintaining a "Hold" rating. The adjustment came on the heels of the disappointing quarterly results, with the bank explicitly citing weak revenue and persistent losses as the rationale. That target cut represents a steeper reduction than the earlier move from 2.90 kroner, reflecting growing caution about the company's near-term prospects.
Nel has also been navigating a leadership transition. Håkon Volldal stepped down as chief executive in June, and the company reached a settlement with Iwatani Corporation of America in early June, closing a legal chapter that had been hanging over the business.
The stock's recent behavior suggests the market has largely digested the bad news. Shares closed Wednesday at €0.2065, up 0.5 percent on the day, and have gained 5.2 percent over the past week. Since the start of the year, the equity is up 9.4 percent. The shares have also recovered 2.2 percent since the Q2 report was released roughly a month ago — a sign that investors are now looking past the weak revenue print and focusing on the order momentum instead.
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Still, the distance to the 52-week high of €0.3655, reached in May, remains a yawning 44 percent. The stock also trades about 4.5 percent below its 200-day moving average of €0.2142, underscoring that the recent bounce has done little to repair the damage from earlier declines. Automated analysis systems currently rate the shares "Hold/Accumulate" with high volatility, a signal that offers limited directional clarity given the fundamental crosscurrents.
The bull case rests on the PEM order surge proving durable rather than a one-off from a handful of large contracts. If the conversion from order to revenue proceeds smoothly in the coming quarters, Nel could post its first meaningful revenue growth in some time, easing pressure on cash generation and potentially closing the gap to that 200-day average. The bear case is equally straightforward: if the order spike was a momentary blip driven by a few big projects without a broader demand trend behind it, the revenue shortfall will persist, the losses will continue, and analyst skepticism will remain justified.
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The next checkpoint arrives October 21, when Nel reports third-quarter results. That report will show whether the order backlog is translating into billable revenue — and whether the company's two-speed narrative can finally converge.
