Nel ASA's Cash Runway Becomes the Real Story While Its Former Subsidiary Moves On

Nel ASA shares trade 47% below 52-week high amid CEO exit, while spun-off Cavendish settles dispute and wins new contracts.

The hydrogen sector has a habit of serving up mixed messages, and Nel ASA is no exception. While the parent company's share price languishes near the lower end of its 52-week range, the business it spun off is quietly resolving old disputes and signing new contracts. The contrast could hardly be starker.

Cavendish Hydrogen ASA, the entity created when Nel split its operations, confirmed on Thursday that it has settled a long-running legal battle with Iwatani Corporation of America. The same day brought word of a fresh project: together with partner Mesure Process, Cavendish will build a hydrogen refuelling station in Luxembourg. The company also confirmed that BHDT GmbH has come on board as a strategic partner and investor, cementing its independent path away from its former parent.

For Nel shareholders, these developments are peripheral — but they underscore how the pieces of the old hydrogen conglomerate are charting separate courses while the core listing struggles for traction.

A Stock Stuck Between Its Highs and Lows

The numbers tell a sobering tale. Nel's shares closed Friday at EUR 0.1934, down 0.6 percent on the day and 1.0 percent lower on the week. The monthly picture shows a marginal gain of 0.2 percent — essentially flat, but that static appearance masks a deeper problem.

The stock sits a full 47 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 0.3655, reached on May 25. At the other end, it has just 12 percent of breathing room above the February 26 low of EUR 0.1731. In plain terms, the equity is trading far closer to the bottom of its annual range than the top.

That positioning reflects a company in transition — and one that investors are still sizing up after a bruising few months.

The Leadership Vacuum and Its Cost

The departure of CEO Håkon Volldal, who left for Elopak, has already taken a measurable toll. Since the announcement, the stock has shed roughly 19.1 percent. That sell-off came on top of weak quarterly figures that showed an EBITDA loss of NOK 155 million.

JPMorgan responded on August 18 by slashing its price target from NOK 2.90 to NOK 1.80, while keeping a Neutral rating. The message was clear: the near-term outlook warrants caution, but the stock isn't being written off entirely.

The analyst action lands at a moment when Nel is sending two contradictory operational signals. Order intake surged 224 percent in the second quarter to NOK 230 million, and the backlog has grown to NOK 1.213 billion. Yet revenue fell roughly 12 percent to NOK 153 million, and operating losses persist.

The Cash Question That Dominates Everything

The real issue is no longer whether Nel can win orders — it clearly can. The question is whether the roughly NOK 1.328 billion in cash on hand will last long enough to convert that backlog into revenue and, eventually, positive margins.

That cash buffer is what allows Nel to conduct an orderly search for a new chief executive, with a self-imposed deadline of end-2026. It also provides cover for the transition period, assuming the burn rate doesn't accelerate unexpectedly.

The bull case rests on the backlog converting into revenue over coming quarters, steadily reducing the loss rate. With the stock already 12 percent above its 52-week low, one could argue that much of the bad news is priced in.

The bear case is equally straightforward. If order intake proves volatile — a pattern hydrogen equipment makers have shown repeatedly — and revenue stagnates while costs hold steady, the cash cushion will erode faster than planned. The stock's position roughly 9.6 percent below its 200-day moving average points to a damaged medium-term trend, and the vacant corner office adds a layer of strategic uncertainty. Without a confirmed successor, it remains unclear whether the balance between electrolyser manufacturing and fuelling-station infrastructure will shift under new leadership.

A Calendar That Offers Structure

For now, investors have fixed dates to anchor their expectations. Nel has scheduled its third-quarter results for October 21, 2026, with the full-year figures and fourth-quarter numbers due on February 19, 2027.

Those milestones will show whether operational progress — notably the next-generation pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform launched commercially in May — is translating into financial results. That platform carries backing from the EU Innovation Fund to the tune of EUR 135 million, and Nel has set its sights on annual production capacity of 4 gigawatts by 2030.

Whether that long-term promise can restore battered investor confidence is a question that won't be answered until the October numbers land. Between now and then, the market will be watching the cash balance as closely as the order book — because in a transition period without a permanent CEO, liquidity is the metric that keeps every other promise credible.