Nel ASA's Balance Sheet Buys Time While the P&L Tells a Harder Story

Nel ASA closed the third quarter of 2026 with NOK 1,078 million in liquid funds — a cushion that gives Europe's best-known hydrogen equipment maker room to maneuver. The same quarterly report, released Thursday, showed a net loss of NOK 141 million. Read together, the two figures frame the central tension facing investors: Nel can fund its ambitions, but its day-to-day business has yet to prove it can stand on its own.

Revenue from customer contracts fell 63% year on year to NOK 112 million, and EBITDA came in at minus NOK 93 million. Those numbers sit awkwardly beside the order momentum Nel has been reporting, yet they describe different stages of the same pipeline rather than a contradiction.

A Backlog That Keeps Climbing

Order intake jumped 339% in the quarter to NOK 253 million, while the order backlog reached NOK 1,314 million — up 34% on the prior year. The gap between a swelling book of business and a shrinking top line is precisely where the investment case now rests. Strong intake improves the footing for future revenue; it does not settle when that revenue will arrive, or at what margin.

Timing is the thread running through Nel's recent announcements. On Tuesday the company disclosed an order for its US subsidiary, Nel Hydrogen US, covering several containerized PEM electrolyzers from the MC series plus associated services. The contract is worth roughly USD 12 million, the buyer is an unnamed US-headquartered global technology group, and delivery is slated for 2027. That is a firm purchase order, not a possibility — but its 2027 horizon means it speaks to future activity rather than any recovery already under way.

A similar pattern applies to the additional orders from Collins Aerospace for PEM electrolyzer stacks, announced about three weeks ago. Those contracts, tied to submarine programs, total around USD 20 million, with shipments scheduled for 2027 and 2028. They give the forward business a firmer outline without implying any immediate lift to current results — and the headline values alone say nothing about the profitability of the projects behind them.

Rheinmetall: A Memorandum, Not a Mandate

Tuesday also brought word of an agreement with Rheinmetall, and it belongs in a different category entirely. The two companies signed a non-binding letter of intent to explore decentralized production of renewable synthetic fuels for defense and critical infrastructure. Nel would contribute its electrolyzer technology; Rheinmetall would bring its Giga-PtX concept and integration expertise. Feasibility, sites and potential pilot projects are all still to be examined, with the initial focus on Norway and on applications in defense and critical infrastructure.

No confirmed plant order has emerged from the arrangement. For shareholders, it opens a prospect — one that should not be equated with business already booked. The distinction matters: a signed purchase order and a memorandum of understanding carry very different weight when it comes to projecting future earnings.

Three Lenses, One Company

Nel's outlook therefore cannot be pinned to the revenue decline alone, nor to the order growth alone. Liquidity provides the financial headroom; binding orders underpin the business outlook; cooperation agreements offer options that remain unproven. Concrete contracts, expected delivery dates and non-binding project reviews each carry their own evidentiary value, and keeping them apart is the essential discipline in assessing this week's news. An operational turnaround will only be established once orders are converted into revenue — and into better results.