Nel ASA's Backlog Is Growing Faster Than Its Revenue — and Rheinmetall Is Still Only a Maybe

Nel ASA has a demand problem in reverse: orders are arriving faster than the company can turn them into sales. That mismatch sits at the heart of the Norwegian hydrogen specialist's third-quarter 2026 report, which showed order intake surging while revenue from customer contracts fell sharply and losses persisted.

The figures tell two very different stories. Revenue from customer contracts came in at NOK 112 million for the quarter, down 63 percent year on year. Order intake, by contrast, jumped 339 percent to NOK 253 million, and the order backlog rose 34 percent to NOK 1,314 million at period end. Against that backlog stood NOK 1,078 million in liquid funds — enough to keep the business running, but not proof of a turnaround.

Orders booked are not revenue earned

The distinction matters because order intake and backlog measure different things. Intake captures new orders won during the period; backlog reflects work still to be delivered. Neither is the same as money already booked as revenue. For investors, the relevant question is whether the backlog converts into sales — and whether those sales arrive alongside an improving bottom line.

On that front, the quarter offered little comfort. Nel reported EBITDA of minus NOK 93 million and a net loss of NOK 141 million. Even rising revenue on its own would not demonstrate sufficient progress on profitability; investors would also need to see losses narrowing as sales recover. A larger backlog does not substitute for that evidence.

A firm US order, but delivery is years away

The clearest concrete positive came from the US subsidiary. On Tuesday, Nel Hydrogen US announced an order worth roughly USD 12 million from an unnamed, globally active technology company headquartered in the United States. The contract covers several containerized PEM electrolysers from the MC series plus associated services, with delivery expected in 2027.

That is a binding purchase order rather than a letter of intent, which gives it more weight than a mere expression of interest. Still, the 2027 delivery window sets a firm boundary on how it should be read: the order demonstrates demand, not a revenue turnaround already achieved. Nor can an earnings contribution be inferred from the order value alone.

Rheinmetall: a signed intention, not a secured contract

A second item from Tuesday carries a different evidentiary value. Nel and Rheinmetall signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to examine modular, decentralized production of synthetic fuels, with applications in defense and critical infrastructure in view. Nel would contribute electrolyser technology; Rheinmetall would bring its Giga-PtX concept and system-integration experience.

Any pilot projects remain subject to further agreements and feasibility studies. Unlike the US order, this is a possible business opportunity and should not be classified as a secured order. In a downside scenario, it amounts to nothing more than an option for now.

What to watch next

The next named operational anchor is the 2027 delivery of the US order — an expectation, not completed work. With Rheinmetall, further agreed steps could act as a catalyst, though the timing of any such steps remains open.

For investors, the takeaway is a hierarchy of proof: received orders, expected deliveries and non-binding projects each carry different weight when judging Nel's future earning power. A rising backlog improves the starting position for future business. It does not, on its own, resolve the gap between orders won and revenue booked — and that gap is where the investment case currently hangs.