Nel ASA: Inside the 339% Order Surge, a Two-Speed Business Is Emerging

Nel ASA's third-quarter 2026 report reads less like a single set of results than two divergent stories sharing one balance sheet. PEM electrolysers are in demand. Alkaline electrolysers are not. And the gap between those two trajectories now defines the investment case more than any headline order figure.

Revenue from customer contracts came in at NOK 112 million for the quarter, down 63%. PEM sales rose 65% to NOK 89 million, while the alkaline business collapsed 91% to NOK 23 million. Group EBITDA landed at minus NOK 93 million, and the net loss reached NOK 141 million. At quarter-end, cash stood at NOK 1,078 million.

The order picture tells a more encouraging story — with caveats. Group-wide order intake jumped 339% to NOK 253 million, and the backlog climbed 34% to NOK 1,314 million. Within PEM alone, intake reached NOK 245 million. Yet orders are not revenue, and a fuller pipeline does not by itself signal a return to profitability. That distinction sits at the heart of how the quarter should be read.

A Tale of Two Chemistries

What makes Nel's situation unusual is that growth and contraction are running side by side. The PEM segment offers a concrete demand base; the alkaline segment remains a heavy drag. Whether the former can eventually offset the latter is the question that will shape the stock's trajectory — and it is not answered by the order book alone.

For a genuine recovery, PEM's momentum would need to carry through to group-level revenue while the alkaline decline moderates. A further rise in bookings without a corresponding revenue effect would be a weaker signal than it first appears. Investors weighing the recovery thesis should therefore track the mix between the two segments as closely as they track incoming orders.

The US Contract and the 2027 Horizon

One tangible data point supporting the PEM narrative arrived roughly a week before the quarterly report: an order to subsidiary Nel Hydrogen US from an unnamed American global technology company. The deal covers several containerised PEM electrolysers plus associated services, valued at about USD 12 million, with delivery expected in 2027.

That delivery date matters. It falls outside the quarter just reported, so the order reinforces the forward outlook without flattering current revenue. Progress on its execution — rather than the announcement itself — will be the concrete checkpoint for the PEM story over the coming year.

Rheinmetall: An Option, Not an Order

A letter of intent signed with Rheinmetall around the same time belongs in a different category. The two companies plan to explore decentralised plants for producing renewable fuels for defence and critical infrastructure, combining Nel's electrolyser technology with Rheinmetall's Giga-PtX concept.

The agreement is non-binding. It is not an additional customer order, and any pilot projects or next steps depend on further review and separate arrangements. It adds optionality to the longer-term picture, but it does not secure revenue. The firmer anchor remains the PEM business, where demand is already visible in the numbers.

What Would Confirm the Turnaround

A gradual recovery stays plausible as long as PEM keeps growing and new orders sustain demand. The risk is twofold: that bookings convert to revenue more slowly than hoped, or that the alkaline slump persists long enough to cap progress even if PEM delivers.

Nel has yet to demonstrate that its growing segment can lift the group's revenue base and contain losses. Until it does, the recovery case rests more on expectations than on realised results. The 2027 US delivery is the nearest fixed marker — and the clearest test of whether the order boom eventually shows up where it counts.