Nel ASA: A Hydrogen Firm Betting on Brussels While Its Chart Tells a Different Story

Nel ASA shares near oversold as Q2 orders surge 224%, but settlement drags earnings; backlog supports 2026 outlook.

The Norwegian electrolyser maker Nel ASA enters the first full week of August straddling two very different realities. Its share price keeps sliding, yet the order pipeline is expanding at a pace that would make most industrial suppliers envious. The question hanging over the stock is whether the operational momentum can eventually outweigh the technical damage.

Friday's close of EUR 0.1944 marked a 1.12 percent decline, extending a rough stretch that has stripped nearly 8 percent from the share over the past month. The equity now trades roughly 47 percent below its May peak of EUR 0.3655. Technical analysts point to a 14-day RSI of 37.8 — approaching but not yet breaching the oversold threshold of 30 that often triggers bargain-hunting. The EUR 0.19 support level now looks like the line in the sand for the trading week ahead.

The chart picture gets uglier still. Nel's shares have slipped beneath both the 50-day moving average of EUR 0.2359 and the 200-day average of EUR 0.2142, sitting 17.59 percent below the former. With the 52-week low of EUR 0.1731 from late February looming below, and annualized 30-day volatility running at 29.45 percent, the stock remains hostage to sector-wide nerves about policy signals and macroeconomic data.

The Order Book Tells a Brighter Story

Beneath the market's pessimism, the underlying business is showing genuine traction. Order intake for the second quarter reached NOK 230 million — a 224 percent jump year-on-year — with the PEM (proton exchange membrane) division accounting for a remarkable 96 percent of that volume. The composition of those orders is notable: industrial customers are gravitating toward modular, scalable systems rather than betting on mega-projects.

The total order backlog now stands at NOK 1.213 billion, providing production visibility well into the second half of 2026. That cushion gives management breathing room as it prepares to commercialize the PA-Series, a new generation of pressurized alkaline electrolysis technology that launched in May. The platform promises to cut the footprint of hydrogen plants by up to 80 percent while reducing capital expenditures by 40 to 60 percent — economics that could shift the calculus for prospective buyers.

A Settlement That Stings

The quarterly results, released in mid-July, were nevertheless dragged into the red by a one-off item. Nel recorded a net loss of NOK 189 million for the second quarter, with NOK 70 million of that attributable to a settlement payment to Iwatani Corporation of America. The charge pushed quarterly EBITDA to minus NOK 155 million.

That payout, tied to an agreement with the Japanese industrial group, obscures what was otherwise an improving operational picture. Management points to a cash position of approximately NOK 1.328 billion as proof that near-term financing concerns are unwarranted — the liquidity cushion should cover ongoing operations and technology development without the need for fresh capital.

The Brussels Variable

Investors now have a specific date on the calendar: early August, when the EU is expected to announce the winners of its HORIZON-JU-CLEANH2-2026 funding call. The tender, part of the Horizon Europe framework, drew 170 project applications by the April deadline, covering everything from green hydrogen production to storage infrastructure.

A Nel technology placement — or a win for one of its partners — would provide a tangible boost to the order outlook and potentially inject some life into a stock that has been starved of positive catalysts. The funding decision sits alongside the PA-Series commercialization as the two events most likely to move the needle in the coming weeks.

Leadership Vacancy Adds Uncertainty

Nel is navigating this pivotal stretch without a permanent chief executive. Håkon Volldal announced his resignation in June and remains in his six-month notice period, leaving the company in a state of transition at precisely the moment when execution matters most.

The sector itself has matured past its hype phase. The froth of earlier years has given way to a more sober environment where infrastructure build-out and concrete investment decisions take precedence over promises. Nel's path to profitability runs through capacity utilization — management targets 500 megawatts of manufacturing capacity by end-2026, scaling to 1 gigawatt in 2027 — but those ambitions only translate into margin if the orders keep flowing.

Analysts remain cautious, with major houses rating the stock "Sell" or "Neutral." The market's skepticism is baked into the share price, even as the operational data improves. The next real test comes with the first commercial orders for the PA-Series, which management expects in the near term. Until then, the stock sits caught between a weakening chart and an order book that suggests better days may lie ahead.