Nel ASA: A 1.31 Billion NOK Backlog Meets a Shrinking Top Line

Nel ASA has handed investors a puzzle rather than a verdict. The hydrogen equipment maker's third-quarter 2026 report, released roughly a week ago, shows orders climbing sharply while revenue fell away — a combination that puts execution, not demand, at the center of the investment case.

Revenue from customer contracts came in at NOK 112 million for the quarter, down 63% from the same period a year earlier. Yet the order intake jumped 339% to NOK 253 million, lifting the backlog 34% to NOK 1,314 million by quarter-end. Losses remained heavy: EBITDA was negative NOK 93 million, and the net loss reached NOK 141 million.

The gap between those two sets of numbers is the whole story. Bookings are not billings, and a fuller order book does not by itself put cash on the income statement. Whether Nel can convert its pipeline into delivered revenue — and do so without letting losses widen — is now the test that matters most.

A Named US Contract Points to 2027

One concrete piece of evidence arrived about a week ago, when Nel Hydrogen US booked an order from an unnamed American technology company. The contract covers containerized PEM electrolysers and associated services worth roughly USD 12 million, with delivery expected in 2027.

That deal gives the recovery thesis something tangible to stand on: a signed piece of business with a defined delivery window. It does not, however, imply an even spread of revenue across quarters or any particular contribution to earnings.

The bull case runs from there. Should Nel deliver such orders on schedule and keep winning new ones, the enlarged backlog could increasingly underpin revenue — provided the added activity also moves the bottom line in the right direction.

A separate memorandum of understanding with Rheinmetall, also signed about a week ago, opens another possible avenue. The two companies intend to explore joint opportunities for decentralized production of renewable fuels under the Giga PtX project. For valuation purposes, the caveat is plain: an exploration agreement is not a binding follow-on order.

Why the Bear Case Has Teeth

Skeptics can point to the recent record itself. Revenue collapsed even as the backlog grew, which argues against assuming that more orders translate quickly into better figures. The bear scenario is continued weak conversion against persistent losses. If expected deliveries slip or fresh bookings fail to keep pace, the hoped-for upturn could arrive later than anticipated. Those are scenario risks, not reported developments.

Management changes offer no shortcut either. Morten Holum has been named to succeed Håkon Volldal as CEO and is due to start no later than May 1, 2027. Until then, a transition period separates the appointment from any operational effect. A new chief can set priorities; the appointment alone proves neither an operating improvement nor faster execution on customer orders.

The Interim Team Takes Over on November 1

The next fixed date on the calendar is November 1, 2026. That is when CFO Kjell Christian Bjørnsen steps in as interim head of the company until Holum begins, with Torbjørn Berg, previously VP Finance, taking over as interim finance chief.

Read that as an organizational step first. For the economic picture, what counts is how revenue conversion, new orders and losses develop afterward — with the US contract's 2027 delivery window as one further reference point.

As long as the backlog remains a credible foundation for future revenue, a recovery scenario stays plausible. If that foundation cracks through weak conversion or a lack of follow-on orders, the risk of losses carries more weight. The question facing investors, then, is not who runs Nel next, but whether the company can turn its order book into economic progress.