Nebius Stock: Sold-Out 2027 Capacity Meets a $250 Billion Funding Question

Nebius says it could sell all 2027 capacity now, with demand reaching into 2028; Palantir named it preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner.

Nebius has a demand problem of the best kind: there may not be enough of it to go around. Management told the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology conference that customer interest now stretches into the first and second quarters of 2028, with individual clients seeking tens of thousands of vGPUs and GPUs. More striking still, the company says it could sell its entire 2027 capacity today. That single sentence reframes the investment case — the open question is no longer whether demand materializes, but whether Nebius can build fast enough to serve it.

The pricing data backs up the order book. Nebius's first Blackwell capacity auction reportedly cleared 15% above the previous price record, while short-term deals are being negotiated at $40 million to $50 million per megawatt, against $20 million to $25 million for medium-term contracts. That is pricing power in its purest form.

A Palantir Seal — and a One-Day Pop

The week's headline event was Palantir Technologies naming Nebius its preferred infrastructure partner for sovereign AI deployments. The distinction matters: Palantir serves governments and enterprises that treat data control as a security requirement rather than a marketing slogan, and Nebius compute and inference endpoints are set to become available inside the Palantir corporate perimeter. The market rewarded the news with a 7.7% single-day gain — proof that good news still gets paid, if only briefly.

Institutional money has been voting the same way. The Saudi central bank more than doubled its Nebius stake in the second quarter, to 167,819 shares worth roughly $46.3 million. Lone Pine Capital opened a new position and made Nebius its largest portfolio holding, while Soros Fund Management also established a stake during the quarter. A note from a central bank is not an impulse buy.

The Balance Sheet Behind the Story

The operational numbers explain the enthusiasm. Second-quarter revenue reached $582.3 million, up 454% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA swung from a $21 million loss to a $236 million profit. The annualized revenue run rate climbed to $3 billion, a 598% increase from a year earlier, and Nebius reaffirmed full-year guidance of $3 billion to $3.4 billion while lifting its target for contracted power capacity to 5 gigawatts by year-end.

Funding that buildout is another matter. On the Global TMT conference circuit, management put the price of 5 gigawatts of contracted capacity by 2030 at roughly $250 billion in financing — of which only about 20% is secured so far. The gap is real, and it goes a long way toward explaining the nervousness running through the share price.

That tension has a concrete origin. About a month ago, Nebius priced $5 billion in convertible bonds — upsized from an initially announced $4.5 billion and split into tranches maturing in 2030 and 2034. Since then the stock has shed some 13.7%, a reminder that the market applauds growth but punishes dilution and debt issuance even when the strategic logic is sound. Reuters recently grouped Nebius with a set of AI data-center challengers that Nvidia has backed directly — a useful reminder of both the strategic stakes and the capital intensity of the race. Competition is tightening too: rival Nscale just signed a multi-year deal with Figure, according to Reuters, even as the window for market-share gains stays open.

Where the Shares Stand

The stock closed Friday at EUR 193.88, down 1.3% on the day and 14% over the past 30 days. Even so, it remains up 164% year to date and 155% over twelve months. The 52-week high of EUR 261.00 sits 26% above the current price; the low of EUR 60.50 is 220% below it. The 200-day moving average of EUR 138.29 lies well under the market price — a sign the longer-term uptrend has survived the recent pullback.

For all the swings, the operational case outweighs the financing worry over the next few quarters. Demand that reaches into 2028, rising auction prices, and a marquee partner in Palantir point to structural rather than cyclical growth. The $250 billion question remains the real stress test — and if Nebius answers it, today's skepticism may look overdone.