Nebius Stock: Prepayments to Fund 75–85% of 2027 Capex as Third-Party Data Center Delays Clip Revenue Outlook

Nebius is leaning on its own customers to bankroll one of the most aggressive infrastructure build-outs in the AI computing space. Chief revenue officer Marc Boroditsky told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday that customer prepayments and contract-backed borrowing are expected to cover 75–85% of the company's capital expenditure in 2027 — a financing model that now sits at the center of the investment case.

The arithmetic is substantial. Nebius anticipates $17–20 billion in customer prepayments for 2027 against planned capex of $40–45 billion, with loans secured against contracts signed with investment-grade customers filling much of the remainder. Whether that structure holds depends on two things arriving on schedule: the cash from customer agreements, and the credit those agreements are meant to unlock.

A financing model tied to contract quality

The approach pairs upfront payments with debt underwritten by existing customer commitments. That makes the build-out highly sensitive to the reliability of those commitments — supportive for Nebius if payments land as planned and the secured facilities are actually drawn down.

Recent signings offer an early read. On contracts closed in the third quarter of 2026, prepayments covered more than 100% of the associated capital expenditure, according to the company, up from 50–60% in the prior quarter. Since the start of Q3, Nebius has announced deals worth more than $12 billion in aggregate, while GPU-hour pricing rose more than 20% quarter over quarter.

Those figures point to firm demand for the capacity Nebius is selling. They become especially valuable for financing if cash arrives early and infrastructure delivery keeps pace with what customers have been promised.

Revenue guidance trimmed as capacity slips

The demand story, however, is running into a supply bottleneck. Nebius said Thursday that delays at third-party data center providers will push some expected revenue into early 2027, and it now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3.0–3.4 billion range.

Investors reacted sharply: the stock fell 9.6% on Friday. The setback came despite a third-quarter revenue print of $980.8 million, up 571% year over year, and a net loss that narrowed to $37.5 million from $119.6 million a year earlier. Both sets of results were released on Thursday.

Capital spending is climbing at the same time. Nebius raised its 2026 capex plan to roughly $27 billion from a prior $20–25 billion range. For 2027, the shareholder letter projects revenue of $12–13 billion alongside the $40–45 billion in investment, with more than 1 GW of new capacity expected to come online. Part of the delayed third-party capacity is slated to arrive in the first half of 2027.

The clock is the test

CEO Arkady Volozh has acknowledged that the heavy infrastructure spending will weigh on free cash flow in the medium term, leaving the timing of construction outlays, customer prepayments and loan drawdowns as a central management challenge.

For shareholders, the financing blueprint offers a concrete way to underwrite a capital-hungry expansion — but only if the agreed funds materialize in the required window and Nebius brings its capacity online reliably. That execution, rather than the demand for GPU hours, is where the story will be settled.