Nebius Stock: Baird Slashes Target to $200 as Vineland Slip Tests the Build-Out Story

Nebius closed Friday down 9.6%, and the trigger was not demand but delivery. The AI cloud provider's revenue is exploding, yet the shares came under pressure after the company disclosed that data center capacity — including space sourced from third-party providers — will arrive later than planned. Reports pointed to the Vineland site in New Jersey as one of the affected locations.

The scale of the top line is hard to argue with. Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 reached $980.8 million, up 571% year over year, according to figures published on Thursday. Net loss narrowed to $37.5 million from $119.6 million in the same quarter a year earlier.

Guidance Skews to the Low End

What unsettled investors was the timing of the revenue behind that growth. Nebius said Thursday that delays in third-party data center capacity will push part of its expected revenue into early 2027. As a result, full-year 2026 sales are now expected at the bottom of the $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range.

The company still expects more than 1 GW of new capacity in 2027, with a portion of the delayed third-party space due to come online in the first half of next year.

Capex Takes a Sharp Step Up

Capital spending plans moved in the opposite direction. Nebius raised its 2026 investment budget to roughly $27 billion, up from the $20 billion to $25 billion previously earmarked. For 2027, the shareholder letter projects capex of $40 billion to $45 billion alongside revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion.

That combination — a higher spending bill against a revenue outlook trimmed at the edges — sits at the heart of the sell-off. Reuters also flagged financing concerns around neocloud providers and broader pressure on AI-linked stocks, adding a sector-wide headwind to the company-specific news.

Baird Keeps the Faith, Cuts the Number

Analyst reaction captured the tension. Baird lowered its price target to $200 from $340, citing the delays in bringing external data center capacity online, but kept its positive rating on the stock. The message is a split one: the longer-term opportunity still draws support, while the lower target acknowledges the friction in executing the build-out.

For investors, the test is now execution rather than demand. The 571% sales increase makes the growth case; whether Nebius can convert its spending plans into usable capacity on schedule — and fund that expansion — will decide how much of it the market is willing to pay for.